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October 25, 2018 | Thud! Sept New Home Sales Plunge 5.5% from Dramatically Revised Lower August

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
The housing data today is downright miserable. Sales plunged a whopping 5.5% from a dramatically revised lower August.

August new home sales were originally reported at 629,000 units at a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR).

Today the New Residential Sales report shows August at 585,000 units and September at 553,000.

Before diving into the dismal numbers, recall that on September 26 I reported New Home Sales Rise Following Huge Two-Month Downward Revisions.

That alleged 3.5% rise, is now seen as a 3.0% decline. And on top of that decline, September sales plunged another 5.5%

New Home Sales

Sales of new single‐family houses in September 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 553,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 5.5 percent below the revised August rate of 585,000 and is 13.2 percent below the September 2017 estimate of 637,000.

Sales Price

The median sales price of new houses sold in September 2018 was $320,000. The average sales price was $377,200.

For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply

The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of September was 327,000. This represents a supply of 7.1 months at the current sales rate

Don’t Blame Hurricanes

The biggest decline in numbers was in the West.

Regional Numbers, in Thousands

  • US Total: 553 -5.5%
  • Northeast: 19 -40.6%
  • Midwest: 72 +6.9%
  • South: 318 -1.5%
  • West: 139 -12.0%

New Home Sales Down 13.2% Year-Over-Year

This is the 4th consecutive month of new home sales declines. Existing Home Sales are Down for the 6th Consecutive Month.

There is no way to put lipstick on this pig.

Housing has peaked this cycle.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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October 25th, 2018

Posted In: Mish Talk

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