ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
October 12, 2018 | San Francisco Housing Bubble – UPDATE!
Robert Campbell
[Excerpted from Sept 2108 Timing Letter]
“The two best traits for a good investor,” says Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller, “are to have a deep appreciation of history and a good understanding of psychology.”
To prove it, look at the above chart.
Now ask yourself this: “How many times in history
have you seen markets rise exponentially and then
correct by going sideways?”
If you said “never,” you’re right.
From 2002 to the peak in 2008, Bay Area
housing prices rose 58% — and then plunged by
30% afterwards.
From 2012 to 2018, Bay Area housing prices
find themselves in the midst of another six-year vertical
climb.
This time, however, prices have risen by 89% – not 58%! – and through June 2018, the price trend is still “up.”
Bay Area housing prices in San Francisco City have climbed the most in the last six years. According to the California Association of Realtors, single-family home prices in San Francisco have soared from $620K in 2012 to $1.6 million in 2018 – a 158% rise.
While Bay Area housing prices may go higher than you think, investors should know that extreme valuations tend to be followed by large corrections when a cycle reverses.
The Game of Musical Chairs
Playing the markets is like playing the children’s game of musical chairs.
To be successful, you must secure a seat when the music stops.
While Bay Area housing prices may go higher than you think, investors should know that extreme valuations tend to be followed by large corrections when a cycle reverses.
In fact we’re now starting to see late cycle, telltale signs that the market is slowing.
To our benefit, momentum readings can give us advance warning of the turn.
WANT MORE?
To hear Robert speak on Oct 16th in San Diego, Click HERE
To attend my seminar and learn how to “Time the Real Estate Market”
better than 99% of all people alive, Click HERE
Comments/questions are always welcome – and you can send them to [email protected]
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Robert Campbell October 12th, 2018
Posted In: The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter