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October 29, 2018 | Volcker Blasts Bernanke and Yellen Over 2% Inflation Target

Volcker openly criticizes his Fed successors over inflation targeting. He is correct yet he did not go far enough. False Precision Paul Volcker wrote an op-ed for Bloomberg accusing the Fed of “false precision”. On that score, as well as inflation targeting, his criticisms are accurate. Please consider What’s Wrong With the 2 Percent Inflation Target by […]

October 29, 2018 | The Fed Will Panic…

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – A wonderfully fraudulent confrontation is setting up… On one side is Donald J. Trump, pretending that he has “already made America great again” and blaming the Fed for ruining his beautiful work. He wants the Fed to lower interest rates, not raise them. On the other is the Fed, pretending that it […]

October 29, 2018 | The Capital Pain of Reaching for Marginally Higher Yields

Reaching for marginally more yield in corporate debt and equities, while taking on much higher capital risk, is dumb money management.  And yet, it continues to be the consensus financial recommendation. Today, because BAA-corporate bonds have been indiscriminately bought at high prices, their yield spread or net income benefit compared with much more liquid and […]

October 29, 2018 | The ‘Lunatic Stocks’ Have Probably Bottomed

Monday’s slow-motion selloff didn’t generate much fear, but it likely exhausted sellers for a while. Although I’ve put out a somewhat lower target in the E-Mini S&Ps for Tuesday, the big moves in the FAANGs appear to be over, or very nearly so. Rick’s Picks had been using a 1496 downside target in AMZN that came with […]

October 29, 2018 | Going, going…

Is it over? Finally? Quietly last Friday our central bank released stats showing a dramatic, almost historic, drop in family borrowing. It’s plunged by more than half in the last few years, and tumbled topsy-turvy in the last 12 months. In fact, we’ve cut our borrowing level back to what it was in 1983. The […]

October 29, 2018 | Caravan, Trump, Hillary, and Voter Fraud

October 29, 2018 | Inverse H&S Patterns and Something Even More Extreme

And so it happened. Gold stocks closed the week below the neck of their inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, while the USD Index closed it above its own inverse H&S. The implications thereof are strongly bearish for gold, silver, and mining stocks and we can say the same about gold’s shooting star candlestick that formed on Friday… […]

October 29, 2018 | US Elections May Trigger Major Market Bottom – PART 1

Almost like clockwork, our research team, at Technical Traders Ltd., predicted on September 17) the US stock market would turn lower and attempt a 5~8% downside move on or after September 21 headed into the US mid-term elections.  Our analysis of the potential downside move was related to our price modeling systems expectations that a […]

October 29, 2018 | Why We’re Ungovernable, Part 15: After Germany’s Merkel Comes Chaos

After a long, initially-successful run promoting European integration and mass immigration, German Chancellor Angela Merkel saw the bottom fall out of her political fortunes this year. This morning she stepped down as leader of the formerly-dominant Christian Democrat party and promised not run again when her term as Chancellor ends in 2021. What happens next […]

October 29, 2018 | Vancouver Housing Correction Notice 2 Years Too Late

Mortgage Debt is our friend not enemy

October 28, 2018 | A Golden Key Can Open Any Door

I’ve pounded the table about gold lately. You can read examples here and here. While gold has moved higher, gold miners are still grinding along in second gear. The good news is we’re about to see them shift into overdrive. The door is opening to potentially massive profit potential. A door that opens with a […]

October 28, 2018 | California Ground Zero in Upcoming Real Estate Bust

Looking for a severe real estate bust? Try Australia or California. Both represent ground zero. The California Association or Realtors (CAR) just posted some Dismal Statistics. The California housing market posted its largest year-over-year sales decline since March 2014 and remained below the 400,000-level sales benchmark for the second consecutive month in September, indicating that the […]

October 28, 2018 | Would-Be Market Collapse Has Turned into a Yawner

After the initial, exhilarating plunge on October 10, bears have struggled for every dime of additional gains. The herky-jerky downtrend since, far from being a collapse, has been a yawner that will have instilled precious little fear on Wall Street or elsewhere. The current mood of traders is nicely captured in a think-piece by my colleague Wolf […]

October 28, 2018 | The Sleeper

Jason (not his own name, mercifully) bought a load of weed stocks with the money in his TFSA. Made a bundle. So, I said when he called me to gloat three weeks ago, sell. The point of investing is to make money. You did. Tax-free. Dump it. He didn’t, of course. Human nature clicked in. […]

October 28, 2018 | Where’s the Capitulation in Precious Metals?

Over the past 20+ years of research and trading in the markets, our team of traders and researchers know one thing is certain, when fear hits the global markets, precious metals react by rocketing higher.  We’ve seen this happen over and over again – even when non-US geopolitical concerns spark some true fear in the […]

October 28, 2018 | Debt Alarm Ringing

Is debt good or bad? The answer is “Yes.” Debt is future spending pulled forward in time. It lets you buy something now for which you otherwise don’t have cash available yet. Whether it’s wise or not depends on what you buy. Debt to educate yourself so you can get a better job may be […]

October 27, 2018 | Eurozone will Collapse – There is No Other Choice Economically

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I can see what you have been arguing about the faulty design of the euro. After the EU rejected Italy’s budget, is there any hope left for Italy? RS, Rome ANSWER: For those who do not follow Europe closely, the European Union took the unprecedented step Tuesday (23rd of Oct) of rejecting […]

October 27, 2018 | How (Not) to Pop a Bubble

It may not have been the craziest headline that the Trump whirlwind has generated in recent months, but you might have seen it amidst all the Stormy Kavanaghs out there: Trump says Fed is his ‘biggest threat’ because it is raising rates too fast . This latest outburst is just one more example of a pattern we have […]

October 27, 2018 | This Week in Money

 

 

October 27, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – October 27th

Stock market price action was an emotional rollercoaster this week with big intraday price swings. The DJIA fell ~2,500 points (9.5%) from All Time Highs in early October to Friday’s lows. Stock markets around the world were under pressure as they keyed off American markets which were “catching down” to the weakness many other markets had […]

October 26, 2018 | ‘For the Love of God! Buy Gold!’

The bears are sounding the Trumpets of Doom on Wall Street. And for all those investors curled up in the fetal position under their desks, I want to offer a way out. A solution I can prove to you here today. That solution: Buy gold. Sure, gold went down on Wednesday after rallying on Monday. […]

October 26, 2018 | Yield Curve Flattening Again: 10-Year Yield Down 15 Basis Points Since October 5

Inflation worriers and treasury bears take note: Bond yields are falling again. Economy is not as strong as it looks. The headline GDP was 3.5% but the headline number looks much stronger than it really is. A huge inventory adjustment contributing 2.07 percentage points to the headline number. Government spending was also on the high […]

October 26, 2018 | Value is Coming, Who will Be Ready?

As markets plunge around the world this week, we should not lose big picture perspective on how relatively little they have mean reverted to date.  And also on how much further stocks are likely to fall before they complete their third, and potentially final, bear cycle of this secular bear that began in 2000. This […]

October 26, 2018 | Pension Crisis hits Russia

Vladimir Putin tried to reform Russia’s pensions system which is crumbling as is the case in the West. This giant Ponzi Scheme is collapsing and it has been the heart of Socialism. Putin’s approval rating plummeted this year in the aftermath dropping from 82% in April 2018, dropping to 66% here in October 2018. His decision to […]

October 26, 2018 | Larger than life

Did the Trump bump become the Trump dump? The theory was gaining ground on Friday afternoon as US markets lurched towards the worst October in eight years. The S&P was near correction territory (that’s a drop of 10% from its high) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq was torpedoed by disappointing results from two of the FANG […]

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