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October 23, 2018 | Forecasting Whatever Trend is in Motion Will Remain in Motion is Standard
Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I believe I understand your criticism about analysis. Whatever trend is in motion people assume will remain in motion. This is dangerous is managing a company, economy, and climate. I read the New York Time from 1961 when they said the climate was getting colder. Perhaps we need to teach a course on how to analyze for the one thing that is certain, tomorrow is not identical to today.
PG
REPLY: You are correct. This type of forecasting is subject to human emotion. The only possible way to overcome this is to teach cyclical analysis for everything goes through a cycle. It is also why I have spent my time in creating a computer to analyze the future objectively. We should probably replace courts with an AI computer. Then, and only then. can we end political prosecutions. Edward Snowden remains under the protection of Putin for revealing to the public that the government was violating the constitution. The politicians call it treason to expose what they are going which is illegal.
Forecasting that the world was getting colder was not profitable for the academics. However, by blaming humans for it getting warmer was a winner! No government can tax people for the privilege of making the climate actually change regardless if it was true of not.
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Martin Armstrong October 23rd, 2018
Posted In: Armstrong Economics