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October 11, 2018 | Cycle Change or Merely a Temporary Drop?

Donald B. Swenson: Born January 24, 1943, Roseau, Minnesota. Graduated H.S. 1961, Moorhead High, Minnesota. Graduated College 1968, Moorhead State University, Minnesota. Designated member of Appraisal Institute (MAI), 1974. Employed with Western Life Insurance Company, 1968 – 71; Iowa Securities Company, 1971 – 73; American Appraisal Company, 1974 – 81. Part-time teacher/valuation consultant/bartender, 1979 – 2008 (taught workshops at Waukesha County Technical Institute, Wi. and Madison Area Technical College, Wi.). Retired 2008 (part time teacher/blogger), AZ. Self educated economist/philosopher/theologian:

All my investor friends came to the clubhouse today to get my view on the markets. I said that I think that a ‘cycle’ change could be developing. I do not express certainty as I know that our markets are manipulated by our Central Authorities and this could change my perspective down the road. But my sense is that a ‘cycle’ change has been signaled and this means that the roaring bull markets (now 113 months in duration) are essentially over. The coming days, weeks, and months will determine if a change has occurred.


What is a ‘cycle’ change? To me this means that the general global sentiment has changed from BULL to BEAR. If this is real (I think it is) then we will witness more stock market declines in the coming weeks and months. A major cycle change is due and I think the signal has been given. I am acting on this news and few of my investor friends agree with me. Most everyone (here at the clubhouse) think’s that the markets will REVERSE in a few days. None are getting calls from their brokers to change or rebalance their portfolios.


So the general mood at my clubhouse is that more BULL is coming and that a cycle change has not occurred. I disagree. The markets are telling me that a serious cycle change has been signaled. The Japan markets (NIKKEI) dropped nearly 1,000 points. The Hang Seng (HSI) also dropped nearly 1,000 points. This signals that sentiment is changing globally and my sense is that this will continue going forward. The evidence is strong that a cycle change has occurred.


The Caracas General (over in Venezuela) however is up today nearly 6% (some 19,000 points) and this reveals that our electronic indexes can be manipulated by our Central Authorities. An economy can go into a depression while the electronic markets go up and up. Will this happen in the USA? Personally, I don’t think so! My sense is that our Fed will continue reducing their balance sheet and also continue with higher interest rates. Our Fed sets the tone for our global markets IMO.


Our real estate markets will probably set the tone for this major cycle change later this year. These markets are directly affected by the higher interest rates and this means a major slow down now with values starting a decline in 2019. Auto’s will also witness a major slow down later this year and next. All the interest sensitive sectors will initiate a slow down and this gives credence to my view that a CYCLE change has occurred.


Some pundits who support my general perceptions are Ray Dalio, John Williams, Peter Schiff, Gerald Celente, Michael Pento, Catherine Austin Fitts, Mac Salvo, Jim Rogers, Alasdair Macleod, Eric Sprott, and Rob Kirby. You can get the views of all these and more by getting the gold/silver app. Could a cycle change also affect the price of silver and gold going forward? I would suggest yes but I also expect more price suppression at the same time. An algorithm can suppress these prices even as demand grows.


Yes, our electronic markets are changing and the manipulation of these markets could get more pronounced. Our Central Banks can trade all these electronic markets and if they desire to pump up and/or pump down a particular electronic index this is possible today. The Caracas General is a prime example of electronic manipulation in real-time. Venezuela is in an economic depression and yet the electronic market goes up today nearly 6%. Is this logical? NO! But we live with manipulated/electronic markets.


Watch the Dow Index in the coming weeks to give us a clear signal on the issue of a CYCLE change. I am betting on this change and the SIGNAL arrived yesterday IMO with the 832 point drop in the Dow, and nearly 1,000 points drop in the Nikkei and the HSI. The signal has arrived IMO. We are heading for a BEAR market for the next few years. This could change everything as it grows and metastasizes. Think for yourself on all these issues!


I am:

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October 11th, 2018

Posted In: Kingdom Economics

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