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October 28, 2018 | California Ground Zero in Upcoming Real Estate Bust

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
Looking for a severe real estate bust? Try Australia or California. Both represent ground zero.

The California Association or Realtors (CAR) just posted some Dismal Statistics.

  • The California housing market posted its largest year-over-year sales decline since March 2014 and remained below the 400,000-level sales benchmark for the second consecutive month in September, indicating that the market is slowing as many potential buyers put their homeownership plans on hold.
  • Existing, single-family home sales totaled 382,550 in September on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down 4.3 percent from August and down 12.4 percent from September 2017.
  • September’s statewide median home price was $578,850, down 2.9 percent from August but up 4.2 percent from September 2017.
  • Statewide active listings rose for the sixth consecutive month, increasing 20.4 percent from the previous year.
  • Inventory reached the highest level in 31 months, with the Unsold Inventory Index reaching 4.2 months in September.
  • September year-to-date sales were down 3.3 percent.
  • Tax reform, which increases the cost of homeownership, also is contributing to the decline, especially in high-cost areas such as the San Francisco Bay Area and Orange County.

Inventory Rising Fast

That image thanks to Calculated Risk.

Inventory up 20%. What’s the problem?

Goodbye California, Hello Boise

Sky-high housing prices in the Golden State bring an echo boom—and new neighbors—to other Western states.

Affordable Migration

Even liberals have finally had enough of California, Illinois, and New York.

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Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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October 28th, 2018

Posted In: Mish Talk

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