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October 26, 2018 | Yield Curve Flattening Again: 10-Year Yield Down 15 Basis Points Since October 5

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
Inflation worriers and treasury bears take note: Bond yields are falling again. Economy is not as strong as it looks.

The headline GDP was 3.5% but the headline number looks much stronger than it really is. A huge inventory adjustment contributing 2.07 percentage points to the headline number. Government spending was also on the high side, contributing 0.56 percentage points.

Stocks Resume Slide

Tech Worries

The Wall Street Journal reports Tech Worries Slam Stocks.

A powerful slump in technology and internet stocks spread Friday, putting the S&P 500 in danger of joining the Nasdaq Composite in correction territory as investors continued an October retreat from risky assets.

U.S. stocks are in the midst of one of their biggest selloffs in years, sparked by worries about the impact of tariffs on U.S. company earnings, as well as whether a slowdown in China and Europe growth could spill over into the U.S. economy. Fast-growing internet and tech firms have been some of the hardest hit stocks during the market turmoil of the past few weeks, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite on track for its worst month since 2008.

Quarterly sales from Amazon.com and Google parent Alphabet disappointed investors, sending the two tech behemoths’ stocks sharply lower and pushing prices of everything from retail stocks to copper prices lower. This week’s selloff has been characterized by widespread buying and selling, leading to whipsaw trading that has unsettled many investors.

The S&P 500 fell 2.8%, breaching the 2637.68 level that would put it 10% below its last record and in correction territory for the first time since February’s selloff.

The Nasdaq Composite slumped 3.6%, erasing Thursday’s rebound and putting it down 12% for the month, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.1% to 24456. A close below 24145.55 would put the blue-chip index in correction territory.

Dip Buyers Out Again

In the time it took to write the above and create charts, much of those early equity losses have been clawed back.

The dip buyers are out again. That’s a strategy that has not exactly been working this past month.

I don’t know where stocks close, nor does anyone else. But at some point, buying the dip is going to be a huge mistake (likely starting this month). Stock are insanely overvalued.

Expect Lost Decade

These declines are just the beginning. For discussion, please see Expect a “Lost Decade”, Stock Market Rout “Only Just a Start”.

It’s been about 10 years since the last financial crisis. FocusEconomics asked me if another one is due. The short answer is yes.

Click for details.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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October 26th, 2018

Posted In: Mish Talk

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