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September 30, 2018 | Uncle Sam Prepares His Robot Army

OK, I’ve got some good news and some bad news. Which do you want first? The good news? OK, no problem. You know that old anti-war cliché about “Suppose They Gave A War And No One Came“? Well that slogan might be closer to becoming reality than you think.  Exhibit A: This story from Japan Today. “SDF recruiters […]

September 30, 2018 | McKinsey: Corporate Executives Increasingly Wary of Global and Local Economy

Sentiment is down for the 3rd straight quarter in McKinsey survey of businesses. Trump’s trade policies at heart of it. According to the McKinsey Economic Conditions Snapshot, September 2018, business sentiment is down for the third quarter. The global outlook is worsening at a faster pace than local conditions. As they regard economic conditions at […]

September 30, 2018 | Silver v Gold Standard

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You do not give much credence to the world returning to a gold standard. Didn’t the entire world use the gold standard before? Thank you for your input JK   ANSWER: The entire world has NEVER been on the gold standard simultaneously. Asia was on a silver standard while the West was on […]

September 30, 2018 | Market at Record Highs Is Flouting Big Risks Just Ahead

So much is riding on the outcome of this week’s FBI investigation that stocks are likely to remain unusually subdued until Kavanaugh’s appointment is decided. If the Senate does not confirm him for a seat on the Supreme Court, this could brew a perfect storm for investors in October that would feature the following: 1) […]

September 30, 2018 | Another Trillion-Dollar Unfunded Liability, Part 2: Running The Hurricane Numbers

The idea that as more people move to Hurricane Alley and other storm-prone places, the future cost of those storms will rise – and that we’re not accounting for that future cost and are therefore likely to be shocked by it – makes intuitive sense. Now some recent studies have fleshed out the numbers, making […]

September 30, 2018 | Bailing Out the Reckless and Unethical: Tipping Point Coming?

We have to wonder how much more pain and suffering the masses will tolerate to keep subsidizing the reckless and unethical.  Is there anyone alive who still doesn’t understand the direct connection here?  When the coming bear market unveils the extent of the damage once more,  the next test of the status quo will be […]

September 30, 2018 | Envy

Sunday midnight’s the drop-dead date for USMC – the successor to NAFTA. As this is written, our earnest little beavers are squabbling with the weasels, trying to do the deal which will (a) save T2’s political butt, (b) not screw up Monday’s election in Quebec and (c) prevent a Biblical Trumpian tariff on maple-made cars […]

September 29, 2018 | The Trump Trade War Recession?

“A conservative is someone who stands athwart history, yelling stop, at a time when no one is inclined to do so, or to have much patience with those who so urge it.” —William F. Buckley, Jr., 1955 I will never compare myself to Bill Buckley, as a writer or anything else. He was one-of-a-kind and […]

September 29, 2018 | Mortgage Rates Highest Since Early 2011: Fed Could Push US Into Recession

The 15-year average mortgage rate is 4.22%. The 30-year rate is 4.72%. These are the highest rates since early 2011. Bleakley Advisory Group’s Peter Boockvar says the Fed and Global Central Banks Could Push the U.S. into Recession. Mortgage Rates Highest Since Early 2011 ​ Mortgage News Daily sees things slightly differently but the the disagreement […]

September 29, 2018 | This Week in Money

September 28, 2018 | Are the Neocons the Greatest Threat to World Peace?

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I have heard people say that the Russian sanctions were intended to overthrow Putin. Is it true that the Neocons believe that Russia will collapse and they will then walk in and take control of all their nukes? PV ANSWER: Believe it or not, the answer is YES!!!!! These people are HIGHLY […]

September 28, 2018 | GDP Estimates Dive Following Trade and Income Data

GPD estimates generally tanked this week. Curiously, the Nowcast forecast rose. I can show why. GDPNow The GDPNow forecast fell from 4.4% on September 26 to 3.8% on September 27, then to 3.6% on September 28. Disastrous trade data accounted for 0.5 percentage points of the drop on the 27th. Income and expenditures accounted for the entire […]

September 28, 2018 | Investment Ideas from the September 2018 BCA Conference

BCA Research’s annual conference delivered some great investment ideas this year, over two jam-packed days, to an audience of about 300 portfolio managers and investors from all over the world. There were some surprising forecasts, in an environment of heightened uncertainty in the world. This conference, organized by one of the world’s top macro research […]

September 28, 2018 | The Public Burning of Brett Kavanaugh

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – We arrive at the end of the week. Yesterday morning, the yard crew were putting up a stake on the Capitol lawn and laying around it a supply of tinder. It was to be a small fire… hot and slow. Brett Kavanaugh was duly tied to the post with his eyes wide […]

September 28, 2018 | Classic Financial Characters and Themes

Classic financial characters and behaviors in this story.  Always worth remembering how susceptible humans can be to the slippery slopes of charismatic characters, greed and fraud. Dana Giacchetto, was the money manager to the stars in the late 1990’s (including a close relationship with Leonardo Dicaprio). But his life came crashing down when the SEC […]

September 28, 2018 | ‘Until it Bursts’

The good news? The economy’s steamy. Our GDP just blew past estimates. Factories humming. Eighteen months of consecutive gains. Despite grief with oil. The bad? Growth means inflation. And higher rates. Given what the Fed did this week, rest assured our guys will repeat. (Markets figure an October hike is 80% done.) Regardless of what the orange guy does […]

September 28, 2018 | Ronald Reagan’s Economist says Recession Looming!

Today’s Wall Street Journal has an article entitled “Another Recession Is Looming”. This article by Martin Feldstein, a Ronald Reagan economist, has a message which is right-on IMO. Martin says “ten years after the Great Recession’s onset, another long, deep downturn may soon roil the U.S. economy.” I fully agree!   His message is that […]

September 28, 2018 | Italy Calls Europe’s Bluff — And The Euro Loses Either Way

When Italy elected a bunch of rowdy populists back in March, the rest of the eurozone assumed (or at least hoped) that the weight of responsibility would bring Rome back into line. But so far the Italians appear to be serious about ending austerity and forcing the ECB to finance their spending ambitions. The just-passed […]

September 28, 2018 | US Interest Rate Interaction with US Dollar

How will the Canadian Dollar hold out?

September 28, 2018 | US Fed Doesn’t Set Rates – It Follows Trends

Expected BC LNG announcement good news

September 28, 2018 | AMY Potential to Stand Tall in Cobalt Production

Recycling Lithium-ion EV Batteries to Reach $20 Billion per year by 2028. Read Recycling International Article  “Future Recovery: e-car Batteries will Deliver Billions in Recycled Metals”. See  AMY Business Plan. View  AMY Powerpoint. Questions?  Email Larry or Phone: 778.574.4444

September 27, 2018 | Will the Dollar – Oil Correlation Get Back into Gear?

Quotable “Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil.” –J. Paul Getty  Commentary & Analysis Will the Dollar – Oil correlation get back into gear? Chart Analysis/Comments/Guesses:   During the hay days of the US-China symbiotic commodities for shrinking dollar boom there was an extremely tight negative correlation between the US dollar and oil […]

September 27, 2018 | India & the Emerging Market Crisis

India’s financial markets are in the throes of this Emerging Market crisis. The Mumbai-based Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services (IL&FS) is an over 30-year-old infrastructure lending giant that claims to have helped develop and finance projects worth $25 billion in Asia’s fastest-growing economy. The company recently defaulted on debt payments because it ran out of cash. […]

September 27, 2018 | What Argentina Tells Us About America’s Future

MOLINOS, ARGENTINA – “Never interrupt an enemy when he is making a mistake,” said Napoleon. In the 1970s, two of America’s biggest rivals were making big mistakes. Russia had been operating a centrally planned economy since the 1920s. China took up central planning after World War II. Communist central planning was a curse to those […]

September 27, 2018 | Durable Goods Order Jump 4.5%, Almost Entirely on Aircraft

Durable goods orders jumped 4.5% in August. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders increased 0.1%. The Census Department report on Advance Durable Goods shows orders rose 4.5% in August. New Orders New orders for manufactured durable goods in August increased $11.1 billion or 4.5 percent to $259.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up two […]

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