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July 25, 2018 | Rise in Long-Term Rates Could End the Revelry

Rick Ackerman

Rick Ackerman is the editor of Rick’s Picks, an online service geared to traders of stocks, options, index futures and commodities. His detailed trading strategies have appeared since the early 1990s in Black Box Forecasts, a newsletter he founded that originally was geared to professional option traders. Barron’s once labeled him an “intrepid trader” in a headline that alluded to his key role in solving a notorious pill-tampering case. He received a $200,000 reward when a conviction resulted, and the story was retold on TV’s FBI: The Untold Story. His professional background includes 12 years as a market maker in the pits of the Pacific Coast Exchange, three as an investigator with renowned San Francisco private eye Hal Lipset, seven as a reporter and newspaper editor, three as a columnist for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner, and two decades as a contributor to publications ranging from Barron’s to The Antiquarian Bookman to Fleet Street Letter and Utne Reader.

Rates on long-term U.S. paper have remained stubbornly buoyant since topping in mid-May and now appear to be gathering strength for a leap to new multiyear highs. If so, the 30-Year Bond could hit 3.745%, with 3.319% possible on the Ten-Year Note. A move to those levels would add considerable drag to the U.S. economy, sapping energy from a housing market that has already turned down and from an auto sector that is threatened by a 25% tariff on imports. The stock market has shrugged off such worries in recent months, but there are reasons to doubt Wall Street’s bravado will continue if long-term rates are about to move significantly higher.

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July 25th, 2018

Posted In: Rick's Picks

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