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July 22, 2018 | Must See Chart! Are We Nearing a Housing Market Peak?

Robert Campbell

Robert Campbell is a real estate analyst and economist. He's been publishing The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter since 2002. His book (Timing the Real Estate Market) presents a clearly defined method for predicting the peaks and valleys of real estate cycles.

[From July 15, 2018 Timing Letter]

The chart below is from the Wall Street Journal (June 2018).

With mortgage rates rising, can home prices keep rising at 7% if wages are only rising at half that rate?

I’m pretty sure the answer is “no” however the variable is timing.

“It takes five years to learn how to make money,” asserts Nassim Taleb,  “and twenty-five to learn how to not lose it.”

While the risk of losing money in real estate is still relatively low at this time (in most major U.S. cities) — that will change … especially if you invest in California’s highly cyclical housing markets.

As long-time readers know, the strategy I suggest investors consider is to be invested in California real estate when price appreciation is expected — and to seek  investment opportunities elsewhere when prices are expected to fall.

What is required of course is a reliable gauge for determining market direction, and that’s something we have.



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