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June 3, 2018 | Trump Is Why Stocks Will Move Higher

Rick Ackerman

Rick Ackerman is the editor of Rick’s Picks, an online service geared to traders of stocks, options, index futures and commodities. His detailed trading strategies have appeared since the early 1990s in Black Box Forecasts, a newsletter he founded that originally was geared to professional option traders. Barron’s once labeled him an “intrepid trader” in a headline that alluded to his key role in solving a notorious pill-tampering case. He received a $200,000 reward when a conviction resulted, and the story was retold on TV’s FBI: The Untold Story. His professional background includes 12 years as a market maker in the pits of the Pacific Coast Exchange, three as an investigator with renowned San Francisco private eye Hal Lipset, seven as a reporter and newspaper editor, three as a columnist for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner, and two decades as a contributor to publications ranging from Barron’s to The Antiquarian Bookman to Fleet Street Letter and Utne Reader.

Last week Rick’s Picks projected a nearly 300-point rally in the S&P 500, although we couldn’t say why. Now we know the answer:  Trump.  Even if the half of America afflicted with Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) can’t see it, much less applaud it, just about everything the President’s done lately has come up a winner.  First, he thumbed his nose at the geopolitical world, especially Europe, when he called off the nuclear deal with Iran. Merkel, Macron et al. acted angry and shocked.  After all, when was the last time the leader of a country threatened to do something and then actually did it?  In retrospect, what followed should have surprised no one:  Hundreds of German companies decided they would rather do business with the U.S. than Iran, boosting the power of Trump’s vow to tighten the noose on Iran’s economy.

Next was the diplomatically unusual way the President called off the summit meeting, telling North Korea’s lunatic dictator to take it and shove it. Summit revived!  Then Trump followed through on a threat to reinstate heavy tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum. Yes, it’s true that there are no economic winners in a trade war.  But are we actually in one?  Judging from the headlines, the news media is certain we are. But I’m more inclined to think it’s just a negotiating ploy — i.e., The Art of the Deal put into practice on a global scale. My prediction is that Europe and Canada, which have threatened countermeasures, will come around before any serious damage is done. Moreover, whatever deal ensues, it will be perceived by everyone not afflicted with TDS as a winner for all parties concerned.  It already is for Argentina, Australia and South Korea, which have gotten deals from Trump that have preserved their exemptions from the tariffs.

Black Employment Is Up

And here’s another success story you would know about if the news media itself were not very seriously afflicted with TDS: Economic data released last week said that, for the first time since 1964, black employment increased while white employment fell. Can this possibly have occurred with America living under such a ‘racist’ President? The USA is in fact at 3.8% unemployment, the economy will continue to hum along, and Democrats can forget about picking up seats in November.  They might even lose a few, net, if the economy picks up steam.

TDS sufferers can’t fathom how the playground bully got elected President, but it is vexing them even more that such an ill-mannered leader could produce winning outcomes at a global level. He is inarticulate and sometimes even crude, and he has been running America as though it were a giant corporation. Trump keeps promises and he delivers on threats. The last President who acted like this was Teddy Roosevelt. If Wall Street is presciently starting to factor better outcomes for the USA, we shouldn’t be too surprised as stocks head higher into autumn. (A debt of thanks to my good friend Larry Amernick for opening my eyes to Trump’s growing list of successes. Personally, I don’t like the guy either. That’s why I was blind to the ways in which he is succeeding where our last half-dozen Presidents — particularly Barack Obama — failed so miserably.)

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June 3rd, 2018

Posted In: Rick's Picks

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