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June 30, 2018 | Real Spending Flat in May, Revisions Lower April Income and Spending

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
Economists missed the mark badly. They expected a rise in real spending of 0.2%. Revisions make the miss even worse.

The BEA ‘s Personal Income and Outlays report for May shows Real DPI increased 0.2 percent in May and Real PCE decreased less than 0.1 percent.

The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.

Revisions

Expectations

Here are the Personal Income and Outlays expectations by Econoday for May.

Economists hit the mark for income, but missed badly on spending. Real spending was flat (Consumer Spending Minus Price Index).

Revisions make the miss even worse.

With yesterday’s GDP report, I noted that it was nearly July but we were looking at first-quarter GDP numbers. I also noted that some of the second quarter reports were only 1/3 in. This was the major one.

This report will be a major blow to 4% and some 5% GDP estimates for the second quarter.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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June 30th, 2018

Posted In: Mish Talk

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