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May 22, 2018 | Orange Crush

A best-selling Canadian author of 14 books on economic trends, real estate, the financial crisis, personal finance strategies, taxation and politics. Nationally-known speaker and lecturer on macroeconomics, the housing market and investment techniques. He is a licensed Investment Advisor with a fee-based, no-commission Toronto-based practice serving clients across Canada.

Will the Dippers take Ontario? Polls now say the NDP has a shot at winning in a couple of weeks. The so-called ‘Tory Tumble’ is stunning. Just like the way reigning Libs will be punted to the curb – unless people are lying to the pollsters.

What does this mean? Why’s it happening?

If the orange guys get the keys in early June Canada will have socialist leaderships in three of the biggest provinces accounting for 67.5% of the entire economy. Included will be all of the national real estate bubble and (outside of Montreal) every significant housing market. This has never happened before and would constitute a serious move to the left by the electorate.

Interestingly, the Conservative collapse is most notable now in the 905 ring of the GTA, where Doug Ford thought his core support lay. Nope. Seems 36% of those stressed-out suburbanites in their seven-figure particleboard-and-glue palaces say they’re NDPers. Plus, gender politics has come into play. Most men are blue. Most women hate Ford. And everybody wants change.

What would an NDP win mean in Ontario (and the rest of the country)? Here are some highlights, taken from the Andrea Horwath platform:

“We will make housing more affordable to Ontarians with a speculation tax.”

Yes, the worst of BC real estate policy could be coming to Ontario. “Housing speculation and flipping are driving up housing prices,” says the NDP platform, ignoring the real causes. “We will implement a new speculation tax that will not be limited to foreign buyers. It will be based on British Columbia’s Speculation Tax, and will apply in the regions where the Non-Resident Speculation Tax (NRST) applies. While the NRST applies only on sales, our anti-speculation tax will apply annually. It will be targeted toward foreign and domestic speculators who do not pay tax in Ontario.”

In other words, a yearly tax on any non-Ontarian owning property in the swatch of land holding most of the population, regardless of whether they live in Canada or elsewhere. It has nothing to do with ‘speculation’ or ‘flipping’, of course. No impact on affordability. But the rabble won’t get it.

“Andrea Horwath and the NDP will roll back Liberal corporate-income-tax giveaways”

In the same year Donald Trump goosed the US economy by cutting company taxes by a third, the NDP would raise Ontario corporate taxes by 13% – from a rate of 11.5% to 13%. Apparently letting businesses make money so they can expand and hire people is a really dumb idea, since we would all be better off working for the government. The Horwath team would also expand employer health tax premiums plus a business education tax.

“Asking the wealthiest Ontarians to contribute more”

People in Ontario who make a lot of money (over $230,000) already have a marginal tax rate of 53%, which means they give up more in tax than they keep. But that’s not enough. “Ontarians earning more than $220,000 will see their income tax increase by one percentage point, while people earning above $300,000 will see their marginal rate increase by two percentage points.” And they’re going after all those expensive realtor-owned Audis, too. As in BC (the current NDP nirvana), there will be a surcharge – “a modest luxury tax” – on cars sold for more than $90,000.

$15 an hour is just the starting point.

On Planet NDP, the workplace is a battleground between employer and employee – not a place to get along and succeed. So the minimum wage would immediately jump to $15 an hour, and hen be indexed annually with the cost of living. With modest 2%, in five years the minimum is almost $17, and meanwhile all full-time employees would be mandated “at least” three weeks paid vacation.

More taxes, more spending. An anti-business bias with seemingly little regard for competitiveness, job creation or productivity. But, we get free drugs. Free tuition. Child care. More government, more overhead. It’s a formula to curl the toes of fiscal conservatives, but (if polls don’t lie) one that most want.

Or do they?

Almost all elections are about change now, not policy. People vote against existing leaders, not necessarily for the new ones. In Ontario (as in BC) the establishment Liberals are held responsible for every woe, from crazy house prices to crappy jobs for Millennials to high energy costs and $1,800-per-month daycare bills. Tory leader Doug Ford, brother of the rebel, crack-smoking former mayor of Toronto, is a scary dude to many people (especially women, it turns out), and his party seems like it would have a hard time organizing a sock drawer. So, bingo, NDP.

You have two weeks to prepare.

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May 22nd, 2018

Posted In: The Greater Fool

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