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May 31, 2018 | Misinterpreting the Markets

Rick Ackerman

Rick Ackerman is the editor of Rick’s Picks, an online service geared to traders of stocks, options, index futures and commodities. His detailed trading strategies have appeared since the early 1990s in Black Box Forecasts, a newsletter he founded that originally was geared to professional option traders. Barron’s once labeled him an “intrepid trader” in a headline that alluded to his key role in solving a notorious pill-tampering case. He received a $200,000 reward when a conviction resulted, and the story was retold on TV’s FBI: The Untold Story. His professional background includes 12 years as a market maker in the pits of the Pacific Coast Exchange, three as an investigator with renowned San Francisco private eye Hal Lipset, seven as a reporter and newspaper editor, three as a columnist for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner, and two decades as a contributor to publications ranging from Barron’s to The Antiquarian Bookman to Fleet Street Letter and Utne Reader.

Elsewhere on the page, I’ve detailed the case for a nearly 300-point rally in the S&P 500.  This goes squarely against my gut feeling that the U.S. economy will be in recession before the year ends.  The chart I’ve presented starkly refutes this. It says the economy is more likely to stumble along, producing stock-market rallies that will seem illogical at best, reckless at worst. However, given the inexorable flow of money into U.S. stocks, especially from places where economic prospects seem even dimmer, it is hardly farfetched to predict that rallies that shouldn’t happen…will happen.  They will continue to plague ‘logical’ folk as long as a fund manager still breathes. Along the way, said money manager will have staunch help from short-covering bears, few of whom will ever understand their key role in misinterpreting the psychology of markets.

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May 31st, 2018

Posted In: Rick's Picks

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