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April 17, 2018 | Bull Market’s Fate Rests with Amazon

Rick Ackerman

Rick Ackerman is the editor of Rick’s Picks, an online service geared to traders of stocks, options, index futures and commodities. His detailed trading strategies have appeared since the early 1990s in Black Box Forecasts, a newsletter he founded that originally was geared to professional option traders. Barron’s once labeled him an “intrepid trader” in a headline that alluded to his key role in solving a notorious pill-tampering case. He received a $200,000 reward when a conviction resulted, and the story was retold on TV’s FBI: The Untold Story. His professional background includes 12 years as a market maker in the pits of the Pacific Coast Exchange, three as an investigator with renowned San Francisco private eye Hal Lipset, seven as a reporter and newspaper editor, three as a columnist for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner, and two decades as a contributor to publications ranging from Barron’s to The Antiquarian Bookman to Fleet Street Letter and Utne Reader.

AMZN took off like a banshee on steroids Tuesday, topping within 25 cents of the 1506.94 target shown. The target had been disseminated in the Rick’s Picks chat room several hours earlier, when the stock was trading $25 lower.) Whether or not AMZN blows past this Hidden Pivot resistance will determine whether the broad averages are likely to achieve new all-time highs. Amazon, as I have continued to emphasize, holds the key to the bull market. It is capable of dragging the entire universe of stocks higher on a given day, or of holding them buoyant on days when fund managers are sitting on their thumbs.  Because the pattern yielding the 1506.94 target is so clear and compelling, the target stood to show some stopping power. However, if buyers blow past it without pausing for even a day, I’d infer that they are determined to test the 1575.97 peak shown in the chart. If it is easily exceeded, that would imply that new record highs are likely — not just for AMZN, but for the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500. This does not fit my scenario of rising interest rates and corporate earnings that may have peaked in Q1.  As a rule, I always heed my charts regardless of what I think. That is what I plan to do now.

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April 17th, 2018

Posted In: Rick's Picks

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