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April 18, 2018 | “Why You Should Question the Buy-And-Hold Strategy … In Both Stocks and Real Estate”

Robert Campbell

Robert Campbell is a real estate analyst and economist. He's been publishing The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter since 2002. His book (Timing the Real Estate Market) presents a clearly defined method for predicting the peaks and valleys of real estate cycles.

I recently came across this 12 year chart of the Vietnamese Stock Market – which showed how it took investors 11 years to get back to breakeven after the market’s 2007 peak.

 

 

The purpose of investment is to make capital grow and protect it from loss – as I’ve been focusing on in my Nov 2017 to March 2018 Timing Letters.  Clearly, and whether you invest in real estate or the stock market, waiting 11 years to get your money back does not meet that standard.

                                    A Tale of Two California Housing Markets

As shown in the chart below, San Diego real estate investors also had to wait 11 years to get back to breakeven after hitting a bubble market peak in 2006.

 

 

How did Bakersfield, CA real estate investors fare during the last 11 years?

Worse than San Diego investors.

In 2017, Bakersfield housing prices were still down 28% below their peak 2006 prices.

Folks, housing market downturns (especially in California!) may be moderate, or they may be real butt-kickers (or fatal).

                               Managing Downside Risk in the California Housing Market

To manage downside risk, my attitude is that you should invest in the California housing market when prices are low and expected to go up – and be out of California housing market when home prices are high and are likely to fall.

The California housing market is the most cyclical in the country – and the biggest real estate profits have always been the result of buying low when housing prices are depressed.

“The Coming Real Estate Bust” 

How to Use Historically Reliable Indicators to Predict the Peak

If you are interested in attending my June 2nd seminar at the La Jolla Marriott, Click HERE.

As a bonus for attending, I will also be presenting a timing system for gold.  It’s a useful indicator that shows when gold prices are making a meaningful bottom – and thus a good time to buy.

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WANT MORE?

To read a sample issue of The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter, Click HERE

To subscribe, Click HERE

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