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April 14, 2018 | Date of Aggression

Eric Hadik began studying & trading the futures markets in the early-80’s - eventually providing his analysis & trading strategies to multi-national oil companies & top-20 banks. In the 90’s, while continuing to trade, Eric consulted dozens of gold & silver miners & manufacturers - before founding INSIIDE Track Trading and providing similar analysis to institutional & individual traders. His work has been featured in IBD, WSJ, Barrons, on CNBC and most recently at Forbes. His trading approach begins with extensive cycle & wave analysis, then honed by specific technical indicators & trading signals (which are reserved for his subscribers).

In the late-1990’s INSIIDE Track began a discussion on an uncanny cycle that has impacted America since her founding and has timed momentous, empire-shaping events dating back for millennia. Among other things, this date has timed:

  • First shot of Revolutionary War
  • First shot of Civil War
  • Start of Spanish/American War
  • Failure of Bay of Pigs Invasion.

That date – April 19 – is what I call the ‘Date of Aggression’. It times not only military battles, but financial, natural, & social battles as well. If you expand the parameters a few days on each side of this date, it also includes:

  • Assassination of Abraham Lincoln
  • Battle of San Jacinto (the final shot in the war for Texas independence)
  • Thornton Affair (first shot in Mexican-American War)
  • Doolittle Raid on Japan (America’s first ‘shot’ on the Japanese homeland in WWII)
  • League of Nations dissolved
  • End of Vietnam conflict & fall of Saigon
  • Operation Praying Mantis (1988; largest battle of surface warships since WWII)

More recently, reflecting the modern tactics of terror and social upheaval, it also timed:

  • Waco/Branch Davidian debacle
  • Oklahoma City Bombing
  • Columbine High School massacre
  • Virginia Tech shooting
  • Boston Marathon bombing
  • Metcalf sniper attack

… and there is much, much more.

Due to over-arching long-term cycles (decades & centuries in duration), this Date of Aggression was/is projected to hold added significance in 2018 – 2021. And now, as we approach this date, the US is engaged in – or threatening engagement in – battles on multiple fronts with Syria now taking center stage and risking all kinds of unintended (or intended) consequences that could spiral out of control in the coming months & years.

One of the natural reasons for this rise in aggression is the start of the Natural Year (in the Northern Hemisphere). The first month of the Natural Year begins on March 20/21 (vernal equinox/start of Spring) and lasts into April 19/20.

Thousands of years ago, this was the time ‘when kings went off to war’ – as described in the Old Testament of the Bible.

It is the time when ancient Rome celebrated Tubilustrium – preparing the army for war.

And in the millennia since then, this time period has consistently & repeatedly timed escalating acts of aggression as half of the globe comes back to life after the ‘containment’ of Winter. As explained in the following 2007 analysis, that period, from March 20 – April 19, often determines what the rest of the year will look like – in terms of war or peace.

The following is a reprint of analysis published in March 2007, further detailing the origin, significance and future application of this uncanny cycle. This analysis was expanded in 2016 and a FREE copy of the Date of Aggression Report is available for anyone that contacts us via our website at www.insiidetracktrading.com.

As you read this, also keep in mind that corresponding analysis – published in multiple articles & reports titled ‘The 17-Year Cycle’ – explained how the stock market was poised for a late-2007 peak (exactly 17 years from its Oct. 11, 1990, Iraq/Kuwait War low) and the onset of a forecast ‘1 – 3 year, 35 – 50% decline’ – reflecting the developing instability that was expected to envelope the globe (many of those reports are still available at www.17YearCycle.com). History powerfully corroborated that economic & cycle analysis…

April 19th:

A Day of Revolts & Rebellions

April 2006 – March 2007 – For several years, I have discussed the significance of the April 19th date in US history. Among many other events, the following all occurred on – or within a few days of – April 19th:

  • Start of Revolutionary War
  • Start of Civil War
  • Start of Mexican-American War
  • Start of Spanish-American War
  • America abandoning the Gold Standard
  • Failure of Bay of Pigs Invasion
  • End of Vietnam War
  • Largest battle of warships since WWII

And, several more recent, tragic events…

  • Suicide bombing of American Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon.
  • Waco/Branch Davidian debacle
  • Oklahoma City Bombing (and coinciding execution of someone allegedly connected to it)
  • Columbine High School massacre

All these combined, however, are just the tip of the iceberg. 

It is interesting that the April 19th tragedies of the past 15 years have been prescient omens to the type of war America is now waging. This war is against stealthy individuals & groups who are much more difficult to battle than a clearly-defined nation or group of nations.

If America is not very careful, we could end up like the British soldiers in the early battles of the French and Indian War. These soldiers – accustomed to only one kind of warfare and one form of battle – marched in meticulous columns through the woods of a new world.

Little did they recognize the dangers that were surrounding them – in the form of French & Indians who had adapted their fighting style to the most practical way to defeat an enemy. These warriors hid among the trees and picked off the British soldiers like sitting ducks.

Similarly, America is used to waging war with an enemy and (naively) expecting everyone involved to adhere to a set standard of what is appropriate and what is not. Blowing up women & children, or using them as human shields, or setting them up as suicide bombers does NOT fit into that code of war-making. However, our enemies operate much differently and believe in one standard of protocal for battle:

All’s fair in… war!

This is not to say that America should stoop to this level. But, we do need to recognize the vast divide between our own standards… and what others believe is appropriate. Perhaps nowhere is this principle better described than in… ‘The Art of War’ by Sun Tzu:

“So it is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will win hundred times in hundred battles. If you only know yourself, but not your opponent, you win one and lose the next. If you do not know yourself or your enemy, you will always lose.”

In contrast, Americans sometimes forget the lessons of wars that were fought only 60 – 70 years ago and try to ‘will’ a different reality into being…Unfortunately, this is hinting that we misperceive some of our enemies… and possibly ourselves. There are some other principles that our enemy employs, about which we appear to be ignorant… or at least apathetic. These can also be found in ‘The Art of War’. For instance:

  “ All warfare is based on deception.”

“He who is prudent and lies in wait for an enemy who is not, will be victorious.”

“Hence to fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting.”

And a critical strategy in warfare…best expressed in this axiom:

“ Secret operations are essential in war; upon them the army relies to make its every move.” 

Unfortunately, the battle between freedom of speech and essential military strategy can have a devastating outcome. This dichotomy is increasing in intensity and complicated by the confusion of whether it is more important to battle a political party or battle a mortal enemy… This time frame fits PERFECTLY with ongoing analysis for a tumultuous time during ‘5768’ (Sept. 2007 – Sept. 2008). The stock market is likely to give some early indications of this. As America gets defeated from within, investors could begin to flee.

One of the first transitions – from blissful ignorance to subtle signs of worry – could come around or just after April 19, 2007. It would be easy to speculate at various factors that could fulfill this expectation, but this type of cycle is NOT that precise. However, there is a recent precedent that might provide a little bit of a road map…

When a myriad of diverse cycles pointed to August – October 2001 for the start of a new war and the published speculation for a ‘surprise attack on America’s shores’, the specifics were unknown. However, from 1999 – August 2001, INSIIDE Track continued to focus readers’ attention on this time frame, ultimately honing it down to September 2001.

Well before this ‘War Cycle’, however, stock market cycles topped in mid-January & late-March 2000 (see Decade Bubble Effect and late-1999 issues of INSIIDE Track). As the indices began to roll over to the downside (3 Q & 4Q 2000), cycles forecast a drop into September 2001.

All of a sudden, market cycles and war cycles converged.

…The date of April 19th has pinpointed a majority of America’s wars… and some prescient omens related to these wars. But there is more than just anniversary significance to April 19th. And, it pinpoints more than just a transition from peace to war or from tyranny to freedom.

On many levels, it represents the passing from life to death… and from death to life…

Happy New (Natural) Year

April 19th holds great significance with regard to the natural year. If one were to begin a calendar on the vernal equinox (start of Spring and the start of the ‘natural year’), the first month of that year would end on April 19/20th. It is when the earth – in the N. Hemisphere – passes from seasonal ‘death’ to ‘life’.

From a trading standpoint, the action in that first 30 days would represent a type of ‘opening range’ that would influence the trading of the rest of the year. Just as we determine the intra-week, intra-month and intra-year trends with respect to their opening ranges, the intra-(natural) year trend would be the same. Once that first 30 days are complete, you have resistance and support for the entire period – both when the market is trading in that range AND once it has broken out of it. But, it is not just trading that is impacted…

The period between March 20/21 – April 19/20th marks a very important transition period in each year. It is linked to various means of measuring time and has physical (natural), celestial (astronomy), metaphysical (astrology) & supernatural (Jewish & Christian commemorations) implications.

So, at the very least, it is a time to watch each year for signs of ‘change’. In many ways, April 19th acts like a deadline for determining what to expect in the coming year. As such, the days immediately preceding (and sometimes following) it show the greatest amount of activity and volatility.

While the first few days or weeks – of the natural year – might unfold with little fanfare, there is often something smoldering beneath the surface. Consequently, it bubbles to the surface as this deadline nears… and usually influences events for the rest of that natural year.

It is almost as if something in nature says “if there is going to be war or revolt this year, you need to show your hand by April 19th”.

So, even though the natural year begins on March 20/21st, the most overt events – that will influence the rest of that natural year – often wait until April 19… give or take 1-2 days. It is the culmination of this decisive period…

Happy New (Celestial) Year

Cycles are a measurement of time. As such, diverse ways of calculating and recording time should be examined when studying cycles. So, here is another intriguing correlation…

Although I do not follow the belief-system of astrology, this is worth discussing since many others do and since it has influenced the beliefs, philosophies and even governments of many peoples…

  1. The zodiac begins with the sun moving into the astrological sign of Aries (Ram) on March 20/21st. This first sign extends until… April 19/20th.
  2. However, the sun does not actually enter the astronomical constellation of Aries until April 19th.
  3. So, April 19th is a critical time of transition on a celestial basis.
  4. The zodiac completes its first ‘month’ on April 19th/20th and then enters Taurus – the Bull – just as the Sun is entering Aries – the Ram.

A Ram and a Bull have had symbolic significance for thousands of years. Here again, the fact that this has influenced others means it should at least be acknowledged in this discussion. It is important to ‘understand’ others to see what drives them, whether it be a friend or foe.

An interesting correlation that involves a Ram and a Bull involves the sacrifices required in the Old Testament (to ‘free’ the guilty party from the consequences or penalties for sin)…The ram was the sacrifice that substituted for Isaac (Genesis 22). In many ways, it was a precursor to future temple sacrifices for the Jews. The ram was both a guilt offering and a fellowship or peace offering in the Jewish Temple.

The bull is another sacrifice that was very prominent in the Old Testament. In each case, this sacrifice was to bring freedom to others… just as so many battles & wars have done. Similarly, brave Americans have often sacrificed their lives so the rest of us could live in freedom. This should never be downplayed or taken for granted…

The bottom line is that this time of year is represented by two ancient sacrificial animals… sacrifices that brought freedom to others.  Coincidence?  There is more…

From Ram to Bull…

Returning to the topic of the ancient symbolic nature of the bull and the ram

In Greek mythology, the bull is the form that Zeus took in order to win Europa. You do not have to go far in today’s Europe to find sculptures, pictures, postage stamps, paintings, etc. showing Europa riding a bull (a strange ‘coincidence’ when you consider the Biblical prophecies in Revelation that repeatedly identify ‘a woman riding a beast’).

In many ways, the bull is the symbol of Europe – both in ancient times and in the prophetic future. And, in many ways, the ancient Roman & Greek Empires are blended together in today’s Europe (even though the Greek Empire was given the symbol of a goat in the book of Daniel).

April 19/20 is when ‘time’ enters the bull…

…and exits the ram…

You can take what you want from these observations (although I would warn against over-emphasizing any one fact). There is actually a lot more to this discussion.

My point is mainly to reiterate that March 20/21 – April 19/20th is the first month of the natural, Persian & celestial year… a time represented by a ram and a bull… and a period that has historically seen many forms of ‘sacrifice’.

Happy New (Sacred) Year

This period – leading into April 19th each year – also coincides with – or overlaps – the start of the YHWH-ordained Jewish Year following the Jewish Exodus from Egypt (what Jews call their ‘sacred year’ as opposed to the ‘civil year’ that begins in the Julian/Gregorian month of September). See …Exodus 12:1-3 & 11-12, reprinted below.

Although modern-day attention is directed to the Jewish civil year – beginning with Rosh Hashana – the year that God (YHWH) ordained to Moses begins just days before Passover… 10 days, to be exact. So, for the past 3,500 years, this time (surrounding our current April 19th date) frame has been linked to a historical and supernatural liberation from slavery & tyranny… passing from social & spiritual death to life.

Is it just coincidence that America – the nation founded on and proclaiming “liberty and justice for all” – has experienced so many watershed events on this momentous anniversary (many of which are directly related to freedom)?

As is often the case, this time frame is bittersweet as ‘freedom’ often comes at great cost of life. One life is ‘sacrificed’ so that other lives can be freed… just as in the example of 3,500 years ago… and the example of 2,000 years ago…

Shaking Things Up…

In many ways, the month of April – or the period from March 20/21 – April 19/20 – represents various examples of instability – from a physical (earthquakes, etc.), financial and emotional (war, revolution, emancipation) perspective.

It is not surprising that one of the most notorious earthquakes in US history occurred at this time. April 18, 1906 is the date of the San Francisco earthquake.

One of the biggest economic earthquakes also took place on this date…

On April 191933, America abandoned the Gold Standard. This date was the second shot of the war against the US Dollar (The first came in 1913 with the establishment of the Federal Reserve.)…

Not only has the period around April 19th played into unsettling events in and on the earth, it has also pinpointed unsettling events above the earth… in ‘the heavens’.

April 14 – 171970 is the date of the Apollo 13 near-disaster.

Until the two space shuttle explosions, this was the most ‘shaky’ event in NASA’s space program. However, the following year held an event of even greater significance (a greater ‘shake-up’) that ushered in a new era and which is still having a profound impact on the world…

April 19, 1971 was the launching of Salyut I – the first space station. This was the first shot in the race to build a modern-day Tower of Babel. 

40 years of testing, after this first installment, comes into play during the 2011/2012 time frame (see Focus 5768 Reports). 2011/2012 could be the crescendo of the space race… [April 2018 Editor’s note: History would validate this 2007 projection with America ending her Space Shuttle program in 2011.]

Interestingly, China recently fired a different kind of shot at the space race, obliterating an old weather satellite with a missile in January. This test was interpreted/intended as a not-so-veiled warning to the U.S. of what might occur if America ever went to the aid of an attacked Taiwan. With this new twist, the soaring eagle could become a sitting duck in times of war.

It is equally intriguing that this potential threat was first identified in the April 26, 1994 & April 17, 1995 GAO Reports regarding the transfer of previously-forbidden missile technology to China. It is ironic that the proverbial ‘handwriting on the wall’ was seen during this decisive period…

The bottom line is that April 19, 1971 began a contest that will probably come to at least one climax in the next few years…

Memorials…

As cited before, this time frame coincides with the Jewish celebration of Passover (Pesach) – an event that commemorated Israel’s freedom & looked ahead to their Liberator

In addition, the Christian celebration of Easter (the resurrection of the ‘Lamb of God’ who had been sacrificed on the day before Passover, just as in Egypt) occurs on April 19th more than it does on any other day. Coincidence?? [Isaiah 52-53 & Psalm 22 provide a detailed description of the prophesied events that were fulfilled at this exact time/dates in ‘April’, 30 AD.]

To a Jew, no other day/date represents a greater ‘liberation’ from slavery (the Exodus) than does Passover, often occurring on April 19.

To a Christian, no other day/date represents a greater ‘liberation’ than does Easter Sunday, most commonly occurring on April 19.

To an American, no other day/date represents a greater liberation than does the Revolutionary War (and our resulting Declaration of Independence), which began on April 19.

Similarly, no other day/date represents a greater liberation to American slaves than does the Civil War, which began on April 12 and saw its ‘first shot fired’ on April 19.

April 19 has an intriguing correlation to freedom on many levels.

 

Global Warning…

So, one might ask if April 19th has had any impact on the rest of the world. One stifled attempt at freedom began on April 15–21, 1989… in Tiananmen Square (evoking memories of a similar protest in April 1976… April = freedom). The ramifications of that are still playing out…

More intriguing, however, are the events that are pulling Europe and the Middle East together… and that have been unfolding for almost 3,000 years (See April 19th: Rome/Europe & the Middle East on page 10).

April 19 – and/or the dates immediately surrounding it – represent the birth of Rome and the ‘birth’ of Islam. While many of these events might appear unrelated, look at them from Israel’s perspective (and therefore from the perspective of the Middle East… and therefore from the perspective of oil) and see if that is still the case…

Rome? (Roman Empire, Crusades, etc.)… Muhammad??… Hitler???… League of Nations/United Nations???? (count how many UN Resolutions are targeted solely at Israel). Each one has represented a major threat to Israel, in the past and/or present...

Taking Stock…

It has been exactly 1 ‘week’ (a 7-year period) since a major top occurred in the stock indices in 2000. This was “the first ‘shot’ fired” against the most salient gauge of American prosperity and wealth. Many indices are still trading below the highs set in January – March 2000 (Nasdaq 100, S+P 500, OEX)… leaving open the possibility that we are transitioning away from the ‘Bull’.

These markets are about to enter a 2nd ‘week’ of time…

Is a second ‘shot’ about to ring out?… 

The month of October is known for momentous lows in the stock market. October 1984, 1987, 1990, 2002, etc. So, what is the opposite of this?… […An expected peak in October 2007].

This discussion will be examined in impending issues of INSIIDE Track and other INSIIDE Track Special ReportsDon’t go anywhere…   IT 

…End of March 2007 analysis.

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April 14th, 2018

Posted In: Insiide Track

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