Howestreet.com - the source for market opinions

ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION

April 2, 2018 | Air Pocket: No Monthly S&P Support Until 2000-2200

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
Those wondering how far equities may drop before there is a sustainable bounce may be in for a negative surprise.

For those who place faith in technicals, there’s a long way down until the next shelf on a monthly chart.

The weekly chart suggests more spots from which to bounce, but nothing looks very firm until 2083 or 1991.

S&P 500 Weekly Support Levels

For those who place no faith in technicals, valuations are extreme.

GMO

GMO Projects real (inflation-adjusted) negative returns in US stocks and bonds, every year, for the next seven years.

​GMO offers this disclaimer.

*The chart represents local, real return forecasts for several asset classes and not for any GMO fund or strategy. These forecasts are forward‐looking statements based upon the reasonable beliefs of GMO and are not a guarantee of future performance. Forward‐looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and GMO assumes no duty to and does not undertake to update forward-looking statements. Forward‐looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, which change over time. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward‐looking statements. U.S. inflation is assumed to mean revert to long‐term inflation of 2.2% over 15 years.

Measuring the Bubble

If one assumes 2.2% inflation per year, then the nominal decline is on the order of -3.4% per year for seven years.

Compared to Hussman, GMO is outright optimistic. In Measuring the Bubble, Hussman forecast stocks will decline by two-thirds over twelve years.

I expect the S&P 500 to lose approximately two-thirds of its value over the completion of this cycle. My impression is that future generations will look back on this moment and say “… and this is where they completely lost their minds.” As I’ve regularly noted in recent months, our immediate outlook is essentially flat neutral for practical purposes, though we’re partial to a layer of tail-risk hedges.

I side with Hussman, but even GMO’s optimistic forecast would crucify pension funds.

Finally, here is an amusing chart of IMF growth forecasts.

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

STAY INFORMED! Receive our Weekly Recap of thought provoking articles, podcasts, and radio delivered to your inbox for FREE! Sign up here for the HoweStreet.com Weekly Recap.

April 2nd, 2018

Posted In: Mish Talk

Post a Comment:

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

All Comments are moderated before appearing on the site

*
*

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.