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February 2, 2018 | Sentiment is Starting to Change! Why?

Donald B. Swenson: Born January 24, 1943, Roseau, Minnesota. Graduated H.S. 1961, Moorhead High, Minnesota. Graduated College 1968, Moorhead State University, Minnesota. Designated member of Appraisal Institute (MAI), 1974. Employed with Western Life Insurance Company, 1968 – 71; Iowa Securities Company, 1971 – 73; American Appraisal Company, 1974 – 81. Part-time teacher/valuation consultant/bartender, 1979 – 2008 (taught workshops at Waukesha County Technical Institute, Wi. and Madison Area Technical College, Wi.). Retired 2008 (part time teacher/blogger), AZ. Self educated economist/philosopher/theologian:

The global cyber markets can change direction in an instant of time. We live with inner markets which respond at near the speed of light to a decision. Our markets react to emotions and sentiments (especially if from higher Authorities). If sentiment changes than decisions change. If sentiment changes then investment choices change. If sentiment changes then the overall direction of our cyber markets change. Is SENTIMENT changing? My sense is Yes!


My sense is that sentiment is STARTING to change as a growing body of traders, investors, and policymakers recognize that the past nine years of excessive pumping of asset values is TOO excessive. Real estate values have been pumped up to excessive levels in many cities and countries. Bond values have been pumped up excessively. Stock prices have been pumped up to extreme levels. All this pumping up of asset values has been EXCESSIVE and extreme in the minds of most.


The general markets are now elevated to levels never reached in all of human history. This is now being recognized as EXCESSIVE. I notice this mindset daily as I talk to investors and seniors here in Arizona. Most everyone with some knowledge of the markets recognize that asset values are excessive. Most wonder when sentiment will change so that some correction can occur. My advice has been that a correction will occur when policymakers have a CHANGE in sentiment. Is this now happening?


My sense is that this is now STARTING to happen in the USA, China, Russia, and most of Western Europe. Central Banks are finally recognizing that they have created excessive liquidity which they have pumped into our asset markets. Prices have reached excessive levels and even our Central Bank policymakers are now recognizing this situation. Will this change in sentiment result in a MAJOR market correction going forward? Is a correction on the horizon?


My sense is that a major market correction is on the horizon for 2018. The road may be bumpy and confusing but a correction is happening as I write and I don’t think this correction is minor. The process may be gradual and uncertain but the realization that sentiment has changed will grow over the coming days, weeks, and months. Watch the index markets as they create extreme volatility and change over the next year. I think the process is STARTING now, but the game is FAR from over.


Our markets are inner and metaphysical. Our money is inner and metaphysical. People are inner and metaphysical with their thinking. We live with METAPHYSICAL markets which derive from human CONSCIOUSNESS. The human mind thinks and then acts. The human mind changes in sentiment as excessive results occur. Today, we live with extreme asset values which are mostly unjustified (based on history). The USA DOW has increased nearly 400% since the last major correction in 2009.


Crypto currencies have reached excessive levels as emotion and mania drives up asset values. This same situation applies to our index/electronic markets. The markets have been under a mania mentality as a result of Central Bank pumping. But all this pumping is a virtual result (psychological) and this pumping does not lead to real prosperity and stability long-term. It’s ephemeral and temporary and eventually a trend will change when extreme excess arrives. I think the time is HERE!


Could our Central Banks change their sentiment and go back to pumping again? Yes, this is possible. My sense is that this will not happen, however, in the USA. As the Fed goes…so goes the global markets is my assumption. Our Fed is central to the coming trends. As I write the Fed is tightening and interest rates are rising. Will this trend permeate all our global cyber markets? I think so (in time). Japan may be an exception for now but I think the European Central Bank, the Peoples Bank of China, and the U.S. Fed will set the stage going forward.


Watch to discern if policymakers have really changed their sentiment going forward. I am assuming that they have changed. This assumption leads me to my conclusion that a major correction in on the horizon. If my assumptions are valid then a correction will happen. If my assumptions are bogus, then the markets will reverse and continue their upward trend. Assumptions are all we have when it comes to predictions. Are my assumptions valid or invalid…that is the question. Enjoy! I am:

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February 2nd, 2018

Posted In: Kingdom Economics

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