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February 20, 2018 | Hourly Charts Hold Key to Big Picture

Rick Ackerman

Rick Ackerman is the editor of Rick’s Picks, an online service geared to traders of stocks, options, index futures and commodities. His detailed trading strategies have appeared since the early 1990s in Black Box Forecasts, a newsletter he founded that originally was geared to professional option traders. Barron’s once labeled him an “intrepid trader” in a headline that alluded to his key role in solving a notorious pill-tampering case. He received a $200,000 reward when a conviction resulted, and the story was retold on TV’s FBI: The Untold Story. His professional background includes 12 years as a market maker in the pits of the Pacific Coast Exchange, three as an investigator with renowned San Francisco private eye Hal Lipset, seven as a reporter and newspaper editor, three as a columnist for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner, and two decades as a contributor to publications ranging from Barron’s to The Antiquarian Bookman to Fleet Street Letter and Utne Reader.

A few days ago I provided precise benchmarks for judging whether the Dow Average is about to embark on a thousand-point rally.  Today I present an  alternative scenario, one in which the Dow could fall by as much as 3000 points. This would be the equivalent to a drop of more than 300 points in the S&P 500, to around 2400.  My gut feeling is bearish, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the broad averages climb first to new record highs, the better for Mr. Market to set the hook in a way that bulls and bears alike get demolished.  Whatever happens, I will continue to monitor the hourly charts of several market bellwethers, since it is impossible for the big trend to reverse without the change being signaled initially on charts of lesser degree.

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February 20th, 2018

Posted In: Rick's Picks

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