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February 22, 2018 | Shorting Oil: A Trade!

Jack has over 20 years experience in the currency, equity, and futures arena. He is an investment advisor who has held key positions in brokerage, money management, trading, and research. Jack is founder and president of Black Swan Capital LLC. He was also founder of Ross International Asset Management (specializing in global stock, bond, and currency asset management for retail clients) and General Manager of Plexus Trading (specializing in currency futures and commodities trading).

We continue to be long-term bulls on oil; but we went short this afternoon for a trade. We are targeting down to the mid-50’s for oil on this EW chart setup.  We have overlaid the US dollar index (inverted in blue) so you can see the correlation.  (I.E. because the dollar index is inverted, when the blue line goes down it means the US dollar is actually increasing in value.  Thus, oil and the dollar are actually negatively correlated, as you likely know.)  The dollar staged a strong reversal rally this afternoon and looks as if it has more to run, even if this is not the major move we are expecting at some time.  Either way, we think oil short here is a good trade idea.

022118 oil setup 240.png

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February 22nd, 2018

Posted In: Black Swan Currency Currents

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