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February 13, 2018 | Dollar’s Rally Turning into a Dead-Cat Bounce?

Rick Ackerman

Rick Ackerman is the editor of Rick’s Picks, an online service geared to traders of stocks, options, index futures and commodities. His detailed trading strategies have appeared since the early 1990s in Black Box Forecasts, a newsletter he founded that originally was geared to professional option traders. Barron’s once labeled him an “intrepid trader” in a headline that alluded to his key role in solving a notorious pill-tampering case. He received a $200,000 reward when a conviction resulted, and the story was retold on TV’s FBI: The Untold Story. His professional background includes 12 years as a market maker in the pits of the Pacific Coast Exchange, three as an investigator with renowned San Francisco private eye Hal Lipset, seven as a reporter and newspaper editor, three as a columnist for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner, and two decades as a contributor to publications ranging from Barron’s to The Antiquarian Bookman to Fleet Street Letter and Utne Reader.

I wouldn’t give up on the dollar quite yet, but DXY appears to be rolling over without having surpassed any significant peaks on the daily chart.  This is bearish price action. The January 26 low at 88.44 came within 15 cents of an 88.29 Hidden Pivot I’d drum-rolled as a place for a potentially important low. The dollar subsequently rallied to as high as 90.57, but as my latest DXY tout (below) makes clear, that’s not quite enough to refresh the bullish energy of the daily chart.  Were the dollar to continue on  its way lower, extending the mini-bear market begun from 103.82 in January 2017, stocks would likely resume an uptrend that seemed to have flourished on the effects, both psychological and real, of a weak dollar.

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February 13th, 2018

Posted In: Rick's Picks

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