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January 13, 2018 | Time, Value, Money and Human Nature!

Donald B. Swenson: Born January 24, 1943, Roseau, Minnesota. Graduated H.S. 1961, Moorhead High, Minnesota. Graduated College 1968, Moorhead State University, Minnesota. Designated member of Appraisal Institute (MAI), 1974. Employed with Western Life Insurance Company, 1968 – 71; Iowa Securities Company, 1971 – 73; American Appraisal Company, 1974 – 81. Part-time teacher/valuation consultant/bartender, 1979 – 2008 (taught workshops at Waukesha County Technical Institute, Wi. and Madison Area Technical College, Wi.). Retired 2008 (part time teacher/blogger), AZ. Self educated economist/philosopher/theologian:

One of the wisest men from history IMO was Solomon of 900 B.C. His wisdom states that there is a ‘time’ for everything. A ‘time’ for war, a ‘time’ for peace, a ‘time’ for love, and a ‘time’ for hate. We could add that there is a time for prosperity and a time for economic collapse. Finally, we might add that there is a time for bubble markets to occur and then a time for pricking these bubble markets. All this is based upon cycles of ‘human nature’. Human nature (money is a human invention) has been a constant over our 6,000 year history.


The prior crashes from history (1907, 1929, 1937, 1974, 1987, 2000, and 2008) happened as emotions changed after some spontaneous event. Emotions are part of human nature. Right now we have a confidence level (in our markets) which is at record highs. We have unemployment at 4.1%. We have corporate profits at record levels. And we have Central Banks trading our markets to prevent a crash. All this suggests that prior human events (cycles) might not be relevant for predicting a future like event. But wait, let’s explore additional evidence.


The one constant of all civilizations is that human nature does not change (at least it has not changed since our Civilization began). What has happened before will rhyme again (not precisely but a rhyme will occur). The following video is instructive as it points to unusual catalysts which can create these cycles of change. The San Francisco earthquake of 1906 (for example) led to the stock market crash of 1907. Emotions changed due to an event which was created by Providence (so it appears).


Another video which is interesting is the following: This analyst thinks that patterns are revealed from past patterns. Seems somewhat logical to me. The best indicator (to me) that our current markets are unsustainable and subject to a violent change in direction, are the continuing ‘positive’ emotions which I witness everywhere. People seem to think that our prior cycles may have been eliminated (given our new technologies and our Central Bank injections). What goes UP may continue indefinitely…seems to be the ‘mantra’. This, to me, is unwarranted optimism.


TIME, according to a prior missive which I just read, is EVERYTHING. Time suggests that we now are now living with ‘vertical markets’ and Time is pointing to higher highs and a trend of growth which is predictable into future months. My personal sense is that any statements of conviction as to WHEN a change in cycle will occur is unwarranted. There are too many potential events which could happen (man-made and Providential) which are totally unpredictable. Human nature, however, will change…but WHEN is impossible to predict.


My personal view is that our markets are now in huge bubbles and at some point the pricking of these bubbles will happen. The precise DATE is uncertain…but based upon HUMAN NATURE and past events of human nature, the situation (a crash) is relatively certain. My sense is that this crash could happen in 2018 as human emotions will likely change as new unpredictable events emerge. Watch for some event which no-one has talked about to happen. For example: who predicted the San Francisco earthquake of 1906? After all, I don’t think man controls events which emerge spontaneously. Enjoy the good times for now! I am:

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January 13th, 2018

Posted In: Kingdom Economics

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