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January 10, 2018 | Ten-Year Note Exceeds a Crucial Threshold

Rick Ackerman

Rick Ackerman is the editor of Rick’s Picks, an online service geared to traders of stocks, options, index futures and commodities. His detailed trading strategies have appeared since the early 1990s in Black Box Forecasts, a newsletter he founded that originally was geared to professional option traders. Barron’s once labeled him an “intrepid trader” in a headline that alluded to his key role in solving a notorious pill-tampering case. He received a $200,000 reward when a conviction resulted, and the story was retold on TV’s FBI: The Untold Story. His professional background includes 12 years as a market maker in the pits of the Pacific Coast Exchange, three as an investigator with renowned San Francisco private eye Hal Lipset, seven as a reporter and newspaper editor, three as a columnist for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner, and two decades as a contributor to publications ranging from Barron’s to The Antiquarian Bookman to Fleet Street Letter and Utne Reader.

Yields on the Ten-Year Treasury Note pierced a crucial resistance at 2.57% Wednesday, setting them on a possible course to as high as 3.11% in the months ahead. If so, the U.S. economic recovery, such as it is, will be operating under a new set of rules and bucking serious headwinds. Those winds would become even more daunting as higher long-term rates back up into the short end of the yield curve. The effect is unlikely to be felt any time soon, but it is something to consider if you’ve been banking on Dow 30,000. The U.S. economy has become wholly dependent on easy credit, and so a turn of the screw that marginally increases the throw-weight of the Fed’s perfunctory, now-and-again 25-basis-point rate hikes could conceivably prove fatal

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January 10th, 2018

Posted In: Rick's Picks

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