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November 22, 2017 | Durable Goods Orders Plunge 1.2% Largely on Aircraft Orders

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
Durable Goods orders fell 1.2% led by aircraft down 18.6%. Autos orders rose 1.7% in a lingering hurricane effect.

Economists missed the mark badly this month expecting a 0.4% rise in durable goods orders.

Instead, orders plunged 1.2% fueled by a 18.6% decline in aircraft orders, the most volatile component in the Census Bureau advance report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders for October.

Key Report Items

In yet another hurricane artifact, automobile new orders rose 1.7%. In October, automobile new orders were 23.5% of all new orders.

The automotive segment will not keep humming for more than another month or two.

Shipments, which are a direct feed into GDP rose only 0.1% for the month.

It’s easy enough to portray this report as being weak or strong, whatever your liking.

It’s even easier to call it grossly distorted by volatile aircraft changes on top of an obvious hurricane impact in autos.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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November 22nd, 2017

Posted In: Mish Talk

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