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September 11, 2017 | A Reality Check for Permabears Hoping for The Big One

Rick Ackerman

Rick Ackerman is the editor of Rick’s Picks, an online service geared to traders of stocks, options, index futures and commodities. His detailed trading strategies have appeared since the early 1990s in Black Box Forecasts, a newsletter he founded that originally was geared to professional option traders. Barron’s once labeled him an “intrepid trader” in a headline that alluded to his key role in solving a notorious pill-tampering case. He received a $200,000 reward when a conviction resulted, and the story was retold on TV’s FBI: The Untold Story. His professional background includes 12 years as a market maker in the pits of the Pacific Coast Exchange, three as an investigator with renowned San Francisco private eye Hal Lipset, seven as a reporter and newspaper editor, three as a columnist for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner, and two decades as a contributor to publications ranging from Barron’s to The Antiquarian Bookman to Fleet Street Letter and Utne Reader.

The chart shown (click on inset) has been my reality check for more than a year, since it makes a strong technical case that the Dow Industrials will get to at least 23317 no matter what I think.  The good news is that a move to that number would amount to a rally of just 5.7% — a run-up that could easily be achieved in time for an October crash, a prospect that never fails to stimulate and delight the permabear’s imagination at this time of year.  The most bullish thing about the chart is the way the herd trampled the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 19343, the first time they encountered it. This implied they meant business, and nothing that has happened since would suggest otherwise.

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September 11th, 2017

Posted In: Rick's Picks

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