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August 27, 2017 | Reason for Investors to Be Hopeful — But Also Terrified

Rick Ackerman

Rick Ackerman is the editor of Rick’s Picks, an online service geared to traders of stocks, options, index futures and commodities. His detailed trading strategies have appeared since the early 1990s in Black Box Forecasts, a newsletter he founded that originally was geared to professional option traders. Barron’s once labeled him an “intrepid trader” in a headline that alluded to his key role in solving a notorious pill-tampering case. He received a $200,000 reward when a conviction resulted, and the story was retold on TV’s FBI: The Untold Story. His professional background includes 12 years as a market maker in the pits of the Pacific Coast Exchange, three as an investigator with renowned San Francisco private eye Hal Lipset, seven as a reporter and newspaper editor, three as a columnist for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner, and two decades as a contributor to publications ranging from Barron’s to The Antiquarian Bookman to Fleet Street Letter and Utne Reader.

Last week, I published a copper chart here that could be used to justify a very bullish outlook for the stock market — for a move as high, even, as Dow 30,000. However, my latest E-Mini S&P tout raises the possibility that stocks have already begun what could turn out to be the worst bear market in history. Lest I be accused of schizophrenia, and be reviled by lurkers who know me only by Rick’s Picks headlines on this page andelsewhere, let me say that I never pretended to have a crystal ball. In fact, no one, not even the best forecaster in the world, knows for sure whether the bull market will continue for another five or ten years, or whether it ended three weeks ago.

My gut feeling is that if stocks have not already topped, they are about to — in a big way. Even so, I will continue to pay close attention to technical signs, especially on the lesser charts; for it is there that a bear market would first become apparent. Indeed, every bear market in history has begun with a downtrending abcd pattern on the one-minute bar chart. I am watching for this now, since August’s weakness has proceeded from a high that precisely matched an important rally target I’d flagged for subscribers. But I am also watching AAPL closely, since it is a key market bellwether that appears to have $8 of upside before it reaches a major Hidden Pivot target at 168.46. That target will have been more than four years in coming if it is achieved, and it looks to me like a great place to get short. I am encouraged to think my forecast could be a bullseye, since a similar forecast for AMZN published in June nailed the stock’s all-time high at 1083.31 to the exact penny seen weeks later. AMZN has since fallen as low as $941, a 13% plunge, raising the possibility that its bull market top is in, even if AAPL’s is not.  If you want to stay closely apprised, consider subscribing to Rick’s Picks. Just click here for an instant, free two-week trial

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August 27th, 2017

Posted In: Rick's Picks

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