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June 29, 2017 | At the Margin…Global Economy Slowing!

Donald B. Swenson: Born January 24, 1943, Roseau, Minnesota. Graduated H.S. 1961, Moorhead High, Minnesota. Graduated College 1968, Moorhead State University, Minnesota. Designated member of Appraisal Institute (MAI), 1974. Employed with Western Life Insurance Company, 1968 – 71; Iowa Securities Company, 1971 – 73; American Appraisal Company, 1974 – 81. Part-time teacher/valuation consultant/bartender, 1979 – 2008 (taught workshops at Waukesha County Technical Institute, Wi. and Madison Area Technical College, Wi.). Retired 2008 (part time teacher/blogger), AZ. Self educated economist/philosopher/theologian:

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When prices change (at the margin) then this change can create a trend if momentum is allowed to continue. Right now, my sense is that our global economy is slowing ‘at the margin’. This means that we MAY be at a crucial point and a new trend could be starting. My sense is that this slowing will continue due to a couple of core factors:

  1. Interest rates are trending upward slowly and meaningfully. This is a change ‘at the margin’…as well as a psychological change.
  2. Real estate prices are topping and in many areas prices are starting to drop…again this is happening ‘at the margin’.
  3. Retail is now changing with Amazon, Kroger, Wal-Mart, and other retailers starting to lower prices and cut employment. This could be significant.

The above three core factors MIGHT indicate that a change has occurred ‘at the margin’. I will be watching the above factors daily to see if my sense will be fulfilled with solid evidence. As of today, I can only use the word MAY and MIGHT because the evidence is shallow and minimal.

We are now going on 99 months since the last serious correction (April, 2009). This is the third longest bull market in our history. At some point psychology changes and this change in psychology can create a new trend. Will momentum continue or will our Deep State operatives change this trend with new QE injections at even higher levels than in 2008 – 2017?

All the QE in Europe and Japan these past couple of years has not changed the deflationary trend which started in 2008-09. Prices are not being hyper-inflated and most areas are now revealing price declines (real estate, retail, and energy). Deflation could accelerate with higher interest rates and with less QE. This would lead to serious defaults, liquidations, and crashes in our virtual index markets.

Give some reflection on this possibility and then WATCH the markets closely going forward. Have events changed ‘at the margin’? Are prices starting to deflate in key areas (real estate, energy, retail)? Will our corrupt Central Banks reverse course and reinvent more QE to reverse this starting trend? We live within a corrupted marketplace where virtual money, algorithms, and Central Bank policy can change our situation. But my sense is that events are starting to change ‘at the margin’. I am:

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June 29th, 2017

Posted In: Kingdom Economics

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