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March 21, 2017 | US $ Smoked. Game Over? Is the Yen Telling?

Jack has over 20 years experience in the currency, equity, and futures arena. He is an investment advisor who has held key positions in brokerage, money management, trading, and research. Jack is founder and president of Black Swan Capital LLC. He was also founder of Ross International Asset Management (specializing in global stock, bond, and currency asset management for retail clients) and General Manager of Plexus Trading (specializing in currency futures and commodities trading).

The US dollar is getting whacked today against the euro, yen, and pound…but in this risk-off day where stocks are getting clobbered, the dollar is holing up against the commodity currencies…but looking at the US dollar index chart weekly basis suggest if it doesn’t hold 9923 support, there could be a long way to fall even if only a correction…There are decent rationales to suggest the dollar bull market is over–disappointment on the Trump agenda, global central banks playing catch-up on rates, etc.; or an expected correction until real money flow pours into the US on Trump agenda implementation and tax holiday for pools of cash held by US companies offshore…we shall see…

…but over the intermediate-term, measured in months, maybe the $-Japanese yen relationship will show the way.  A break of critical support at 111.57 in USD/JPY, tested today, suggest the yen goes lower and maybe a lot lower…alternative targets to 108.43; then 104.05 on this view…stay tuned…

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March 21st, 2017

Posted In: Black Swan Currency Currents

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