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February 8, 2017 | Inflation Ahead? Yeah, Sure.

Rick Ackerman

Rick Ackerman is the editor of Rick’s Picks, an online service geared to traders of stocks, options, index futures and commodities. His detailed trading strategies have appeared since the early 1990s in Black Box Forecasts, a newsletter he founded that originally was geared to professional option traders. Barron’s once labeled him an “intrepid trader” in a headline that alluded to his key role in solving a notorious pill-tampering case. He received a $200,000 reward when a conviction resulted, and the story was retold on TV’s FBI: The Untold Story. His professional background includes 12 years as a market maker in the pits of the Pacific Coast Exchange, three as an investigator with renowned San Francisco private eye Hal Lipset, seven as a reporter and newspaper editor, three as a columnist for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner, and two decades as a contributor to publications ranging from Barron’s to The Antiquarian Bookman to Fleet Street Letter and Utne Reader.

The inflation drumbeat has grown more insistent lately, stoked by Fed blather about raising rates to prevent the economy from overheating. Yeah, sure. I’m not buying any of it, particularly statistics that purport to show inflation even in Europe.  An epic deflation still awaits and eventually will be triggered by the implosion of a largely uncollateralized, quadrillion dollar derivatives bubble. A further, irresistible catalyst will be the zeroing out of deferred, unpayable liabilities in our pension and healthcare systems. These deflationary black holes cannot be ‘monetized’ like the financial system, since they involve real cash sent to real recipients each month to pay for real services and real goods. More immediately, the bull cycle has peaked for residential and commercial real estate. If these factors add up to the return of inflation, then I am a monkey’s uncle. T-Bonds seem to know all of this, having risen sharply in recent weeks. Don’t be surprised if the trend continues.

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February 8th, 2017

Posted In: Rick's Picks

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