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January 11, 2017 | With DEFCON 3 Imminent, We Remain Bullish

Rick Ackerman

Rick Ackerman is the editor of Rick’s Picks, an online service geared to traders of stocks, options, index futures and commodities. His detailed trading strategies have appeared since the early 1990s in Black Box Forecasts, a newsletter he founded that originally was geared to professional option traders. Barron’s once labeled him an “intrepid trader” in a headline that alluded to his key role in solving a notorious pill-tampering case. He received a $200,000 reward when a conviction resulted, and the story was retold on TV’s FBI: The Untold Story. His professional background includes 12 years as a market maker in the pits of the Pacific Coast Exchange, three as an investigator with renowned San Francisco private eye Hal Lipset, seven as a reporter and newspaper editor, three as a columnist for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner, and two decades as a contributor to publications ranging from Barron’s to The Antiquarian Bookman to Fleet Street Letter and Utne Reader.

A month of tedious consolidation has set the stock market up for a seemingly likely push higher. The chart shown suggests the Dow rally could reach 20257, or possibly even 21101, over the next month or two. That last number has served as our bull-market lodestone for quite a while, and even a thousand-point dive would not negate it. However, that doesn’t mean we would relax if the Indoos were to break out above their narrow range of the last 30 days. In fact, we would raise the alert level to Defcon 3, since any kind of breakout at all, even a modest one, would increase the odds of a bull trap. The only way to identify it without getting taken down ourselves is to stay focused on the lesser charts, since every bear market in history has begun with an abcd downtrend on the one-minute chart. So will the next one, and that’s why the investment of time and patience that it will take to see the avalanche coming is worth it.Last-gasp-target

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January 11th, 2017

Posted In: Rick's Picks

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