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December 10, 2016 | GDPNow 4th Quarter Estimate 2.6% (Dec 9), FRBNY Nowcast 2.7% (Dec 2)

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

This past week there was a trio of economic reports this past week: International trade, Factory Orders, and Wholesale Trade.

I did not think any of them would change model GDP estimates because there were advance reports to which the models had already adjusted, and the actual reports were in-line with the advance reports.

My expectation was the FRBNY NOWcast model would converge with GDPNow, with the latter not moving at all. Let’s take a look at what happened.

GDPNow Latest Forecast: 2.6 Percent — December 9, 2016

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 2.6 percent on December 9, unchanged from December 6. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter growth decreased from 0.46 percentage points to 0.42 percentage points after this morning’s wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

gdpnow-2016-12-09

FRBNY Nowcast: 2.7 Percent — December 2, 2016

  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.7% for 2016:Q4.
  • News from this week’s data releases provided mixed signals, but overall had a positive impact on the nowcast.
  • Real gross domestic income and labor market data had the largest positive contributions to the nowcast, only slightly offset by negative news from personal consumption expenditures.

FRBNY Nowcast: December 9, 2016 – None

There was no Nowcast for December 9 because of next week’s FOMC meeting. I am not sure why the New York Fed halts Nowcasts but the Atlanta Fed doesn’t, but those are the rules. This is what I guessed.

In Mishcast of Nowcast, GDPNow for December 9, 2016 I made this stab

Mishcast of Nowcast, GDPNow

Wholesale trade numbers come out on Friday. Given advance numbers, I expect no change in GDPNow.

I also take a stab that factory numbers and the trade deficit numbers lower Nowcast by 0.1 percentage points. Nowcast is currently at 2.7%.

If my guess is correct, the models will converge at 2.6% on Friday when both report.

The New York Fed did not make a call this week so we find out in another week.

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Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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December 10th, 2016

Posted In: Mish Talk

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