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November 4, 2016 | Nate Silver Gives Trump a 35% Chance in New Hampshire: Who is Really Ahead?

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Nate Silver has Trump’s odds of Winning New Hampshire at 35.3%. Recent polls suggest far better Trump odds by my way of looking at things. Let’s take a look.


Silver arrives at that number based on recent polls.

New Hampshire Polls


Polls prior to October 26 are too dated. I discarded three polls. It’s possible the University of New Hampshire poll is too dated as well, but I left it.

Of the recent polls, one is a tie, three favor Hillary, and three favor Trump.

The Survey Monkey poll is so wildly different one might want to reject it outright. Nonetheless,I left that poll in the mix as well.

If one excludes the Survey Monkey poll and only looks at polls that concluded in November, the results look like 1 tie, 3 for Trump, and 1 for Hillary.

So as to not introduce too much personal bias or wishful thinking into these polls, I come away with something close to a tossup, not a 35% chance for Trump, with momentum in Trump’s favor.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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November 4th, 2016

Posted In: Mish Talk

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