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November 9, 2016 | A ‘Trump Bull Market’ Brewing?

Rick Ackerman

Rick Ackerman is the editor of Rick’s Picks, an online service geared to traders of stocks, options, index futures and commodities. His detailed trading strategies have appeared since the early 1990s in Black Box Forecasts, a newsletter he founded that originally was geared to professional option traders. Barron’s once labeled him an “intrepid trader” in a headline that alluded to his key role in solving a notorious pill-tampering case. He received a $200,000 reward when a conviction resulted, and the story was retold on TV’s FBI: The Untold Story. His professional background includes 12 years as a market maker in the pits of the Pacific Coast Exchange, three as an investigator with renowned San Francisco private eye Hal Lipset, seven as a reporter and newspaper editor, three as a columnist for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner, and two decades as a contributor to publications ranging from Barron’s to The Antiquarian Bookman to Fleet Street Letter and Utne Reader.

Will Trump be able to reinvigorate the economy? I wouldn’t have imagined it possible were it not for the fact that T-Bond prices have broken down so severely. This has sent yields on long-term Treasury’s soaring toward 3%, up from a low of 1.1% in July. I still see deflation as the force that will inevitably do us in, triggering a Second Great Depression. It would feed off of the implosion of a quadrillion derivatives bubble, the by-now unavoidable bankruptcy of Social Security, Medicare and public pensions, and a collapse in residential real estates prices. But with yesterday’s 1200-point turnaround in the Dow Industrial Average, the markets may be telegraphing a strong economic upthrust in the interim. Higher yields would correspond to a period of inflation, presumably temporary, while the stock market’s ballistic bounce in recent days could be the start of a steep ascent to new record highs. Even before the election, I’d projected a 1500-point run-up in the Dow. We will want to monitor the Dow’s vital signs if and when it gets to my 19727 target, a Hidden Pivot resistance. However, an easy move past that number would imply that the blue chip average is about to push above 20,000 for the first time ever. This sounds incredible to me, but I’ve learned over time to trust technical analysis over any gut feelings I might have.

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November 9th, 2016

Posted In: Rick's Picks

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