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October 21, 2016 | Oil: Currencies May be Telling Us Oil Prices are About to Fall…

Jack has over 20 years experience in the currency, equity, and futures arena. He is an investment advisor who has held key positions in brokerage, money management, trading, and research. Jack is founder and president of Black Swan Capital LLC. He was also founder of Ross International Asset Management (specializing in global stock, bond, and currency asset management for retail clients) and General Manager of Plexus Trading (specializing in currency futures and commodities trading).


“Poetry may make us from time to time a little more aware of the deeper, unnamed feelings which form the substratum of our being, to which we rarely penetrate; for our lives are mostly a constant evasion of ourselves.”

–T. S. Eliot [My T.S. Elliott favorite, Little Gidding]

Commentary & Analysis

If you look at the near-term price action of the Canadian dollar (CAD) and Norwegian krone (NOK) and assume these two currencies tend to move in tandem with oil prices, it might suggest oil is about to head south, despite the vaunted agreement to control production.   NOK (red line) has done a pretty good job of leading crude lately…

We’ve been looking to add oil short in our Key Market Strategies portfolio, using the oil ETF USO as the proxy.  Below is a daily chart of USO we shared with our subscribers recently, looking to get short (or long a reverse oil ETF) on a close below 11.37:

A breakdown in oil here could carry back to the swing low at 9.23 or more for USO.

The weekly chart of crude oil futures (WTI) also suggests black gold may be turning over (a flat correction).

Of course if the run in the dollar is due for a rest, hold the charts upside down when you review.

Have a great weekend.

Jack Crooks

President, Black Swan Capital

[email protected]

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October 21st, 2016

Posted In: Black Swan Currency Currents

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