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October 8, 2016 | GDP Now 3rd Quarter Forecast at 2.1%, Dips Below FRBNY Nowcast

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

A week ago, we discussed the near-convergence of the the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast for third quarter GDP (then at 2.4%) with the FRBNY Nowcast forecast at 2.2%.

We have now seen convergence, and then some.

At its maximum, GDPNow was a full percentage point higher than the Nowcast. Now, the GDPNow forecast is slightly below Nowcast.

GDPNow Latest Forecast: 2.1 Percent — October 7, 2016

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 2.1 percent on October 7, down from 2.2 percent on October 5. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth fell from 0.28 percentage points to 0.24 percentage points after this morning’s wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The forecast of real government spending growth fell from 0.1 percent to –0.1 percent following this morning’s employment release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

gdpnow-2016-10-07

Huge Slide

The top to bottom decline in GDPNow went from 3.8% on August 5 to 2.1% on October 7. That’s a decline of 1.7 percentage points.

FRBNY Nowcast

As of October 7, 2016, here are the Nowcast highlights.

  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.2 % for 2016:Q3 and 1.3 % for 2016:Q4.
  • News from this week’s data releases left the nowcast for Q3 virtually unchanged and pushed the nowcast for Q4 up slightly.
  • Positive news came from international trade data as well as the manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISM business surveys.

My announced forecast was that third quarter would dip slightly while the fourth quarter would rise slightly.

Third Quarter Nowcast

nowcast-2016-10-08a

The FRBNY Nowcast never got quite as exuberant as GDPNow, but as of Friday, Nowcast is higher than GDPNow for the first time in this series.

Mike”Mish” Shedlock

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October 8th, 2016

Posted In: Mish Talk

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