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September 20, 2016 | Is Trump Really Behind in Colorado? New Hampshire? Meme of the Campaign in Reverse

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Real Clear Politics has Clinton ahead in Colorado. So does Nate Silver. So does the Washington Post.

I dove into the real story, and I conclude otherwise.

First, let’s take a look at how they see things.

  • Real Clear Politics: Clinton +3.7
  • Nate Silver: Clinton 64.5% Chance of Winning
  • Washington Post: Clinton +3.7 (Citing RCP)

On September 19, Washington Post writer Chris Cillizza proclaimed Map is Moving Toward Trump. But Not Enough. Not Yet.

Two things are now true about the 2016 political map:

  1. Donald Trump is making polling gains in key swing states.
  2. Hillary Clinton remains in the driver’s seat.

That analysis essentially concludes the shift in momentum doesn’t matter yet. Even worse, Cillizza accept a poll averages by RCP as representative of facts, without any investigation.

Meme of the Day

The meme of the day (campaign actually), espoused by Cillizza and many others, is that Trump needs to hold every state he has, then pick up more states in Hillary’s column.

What if that meme is ass backwards?

RCP Polls

rcp-polls-2016-09-20

How did RCP derive that +3.7 margin for Hillary?

RCP Colorado

rcp-colorado-2016-09-20a

Any poll from August is useless. The one and only poll in September shows Trump in the lead.

Nate Silver Colorado

nate-silver-colorado-2016-09-20

How did Silver arrive at that magic number?

Nate Silver Colorado Polls

nate-silver-colorado-2016-09-20a

  • Six of 10 polls considered by Silver are useless except for historical analysis.
  • The most recent poll has Trump at +4 (+3 if you accept his revision, and I will).
  • The unrevised September polls are +4, Tie, and +3 for Trump. One poll is +7 for Clinton.
  • The revised September polls are +3, +2, and +4 for Trump. One poll is +7 for Clinton.

The single poll in favor of Clinton could easily be an outlier. Even if one concludes it is legitimate, Trump is in no worse shape than a tie.

Since the latest poll should carry the most weight, I suggest Trump is actually ahead in Colorado.

New Hampshire

nate-silver-nh-2016-09-20

Hmm. It appears there are only two polls that matter in New Hampshire.

Trump is ahead in the most recent poll. It’s also the poll in which Nate Silver has the largest weight.

Meme of the Campaign in Reverse

nate-silver-odds-2016-09-20a

Mentally move Colorado into the Trump column where it belongs. Guess what happens?

The meme of the campaign becomes … Despite a huge momentum shift to Trump, Hillary has to hold on to every state she has, plus she needs to pick up at least one state in Trump’s column.

If Trump does well in the debates, he will win the election.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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September 20th, 2016

Posted In: Mish Talk

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