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August 25, 2016 | Uncertainty Soars in China and UK

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Global uncertainty is on the rise, led by China and the UK.

In the US and Europe measures of uncertainly are on the decline. I gather this from a chart that ZeroHedge tweeted this morning.

Global Uncertainty

Global Uncertainty

I asked ZeroHedge where the chart came from and he replied “In today’s Citi report from Willem Buiter”.

OK, but where did Buiter get the data?

Although the scales are different, the answer appears to be Economic Policy Uncertainty. The the patterns match precisely.

Economic Policy Uncertainty UK

Economic uncertainty UK

I am not sure what Buiter said in this morning’s notes, but analyzing political uncertainty has entertainment value and little more.

Lagarde on Brexit

On July 7, I reported Lagarde Flip-Flops Again on Brexit, Warns of “Disastrous” Trump-Style Protectionism

Ahead of the vote on Brexit, IMF head Christine Lagarde warned of a prolonged period of uncertainty.

After the vote, Largarde said Brexit provided the EU a better opportunity for reform.

Lagarde's Changing Tune on Brexit

Whatever Happened to Brexit Armageddon?

On August 21, I commented Brexit: Worst Case Scenario for EU; Armageddon Promise Now Visible as Pack of Lies.

The UK appears to be doing quite fine despite the uncertainty.

And despite recently falling uncertainty in Europe, Marine Le Pen is rising in France, an anti-immigration candidate will likely be the next president in Austria, Matteo Renzi may resign if he does not get the referendum he wants, and Germany is fighting with Turkey.

It’s quite entertaining.


Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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August 25th, 2016

Posted In: Mish Talk

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