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August 2, 2016 | Is the Housing Market Collapsing?

Martin Armstrong

Martin Arthur Armstrong is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.

Well, home ownership in America is falling to a 51.6-year low. The actual share of Americans who own their homes fell to 62.9% in the second quarter, which was the lowest since 1965, according to a Census Bureau report.

What is happening is two-fold. Net real wages after taxes have been declining. Combine this with rising property taxes because states are dead broke. This is turning into a battle between government workers and the average citizen. Consequently, this is the number one hurdle that is now suppressing the average home value.

Affordability will be a huge issue, so the average home remains below that of 2007. Many real estate agents I have spoken to just in New Jersey warn of the same problem. They say that if housing prices returned to their former highs of 2007, the supply on the market would dramatically increase.

The property that has risen in the recovery from 2011 has been the high-end, which is driven largely by foreign capital inflows. However, there too, excluding the foreign capital, the trend is starting to reach its crest for right now.

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August 2nd, 2016

Posted In: Armstrong Economics

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