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May 3, 2016 | Trump 41%, Clinton 39% in Rasmussen Poll; Cruz’s Rating Negative in Gallup Poll

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Despite massive amounts of nonsense from the Republican elite that Trump cannot beat Hillary, and from Ted Cruz who claims that he is the only one who can, comes two relevant polls to the contrary.

Trump 41%, Clinton 39%

A recent Rasmussen Reports polls says Trump 41%, Clinton 39%

Last week, Rasmussen Reports gave voters the option of staying home on Election Day if Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the big party nominees, and six percent (6%) said that’s what they intend to do for now. Clinton and Trump were tied with 38% support each; 16% said they would vote for some other candidate, and two percent (2%) were undecided.

But Trump edges slightly ahead if the stay-at-home option is removed. Trump also now does twice as well among Democrats as Clinton does among Republicans.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with 41% support to Clinton’s 39%. Fifteen percent (15%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

Trump now has the support of 73% of Republicans, while 77% of Democrats back Clinton. But Trump picks up 15% of Democrats, while just eight percent (8%) of GOP voters prefer Clinton, given this matchup. Republicans are twice as likely to prefer another candidate.

Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Trump leads 37% to 31%, but 23% like another candidate. Nine percent (9%) are undecided.

Cruz’s Image Plummets, Trump’s Improves Among Republicans

Gallup reports Cruz’s Image Plummets, Trump’s Improves Among Republicans.

Republicans’ views of Cruz are now the worst in Gallup’s history of tracking the Texas senator. His image among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents is at 39% favorable and 45% unfavorable, based on April 24-30 interviewing, for a net favorable score of -6. The last few days have marked the first time we have seen Cruz’s image underwater since we began daily tracking in July.

Ted Cruz Image

In sharp contrast to the recent trajectory of Cruz’s image, we find Trump’s image on an upswing in recent days.

Trump Image

The accompanying chart shows the pattern of movement between the two GOP candidates over the past nine months among Republicans — based on net favorable ratings.

trump cruz image

Campaign Over

Barring a last minute rules change, this campaign is over. Don’t expect a rules change either, given the surge in Trump’s popularity and a plunge in Cruz’s.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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May 3rd, 2016

Posted In: Mish Talk

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One Comment

  • Layne says:

    Hard to believe the Democrats would chose to field the extraordinarily flawed old Hillary from the glue factory–the very symbol of the corrupt, incompetent, entitled PC elite–when it is clear the tide of history is rushing in exactly the opposite direction. Trump is gonna tear her to shreds. The Dems should pray for an indictment and polish up Bernie a bit.

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