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May 12, 2016 | Reflections from Money Show – Las Vegas, May 9 – 11!

Donald B. Swenson: Born January 24, 1943, Roseau, Minnesota. Graduated H.S. 1961, Moorhead High, Minnesota. Graduated College 1968, Moorhead State University, Minnesota. Designated member of Appraisal Institute (MAI), 1974. Employed with Western Life Insurance Company, 1968 – 71; Iowa Securities Company, 1971 – 73; American Appraisal Company, 1974 – 81. Part-time teacher/valuation consultant/bartender, 1979 – 2008 (taught workshops at Waukesha County Technical Institute, Wi. and Madison Area Technical College, Wi.). Retired 2008 (part time teacher/blogger), AZ. Self educated economist/philosopher/theologian:

The sentiment has changed at this year’s Money Show event! I have been attending these Money Show events for the past 7 years and this year’s event was different! Basically, the 2500 attendees this year were mostly Bearish. Based on the ‘show of hands’ at various presentations, I would suggest that 70+% of the attendee’s this year were Bearish to severely Bearish. This sentiment was interesting as attendees this year seemed to be much more interested in Gold/Silver investing than all the prior years. Why? My sense is that attendees are now recognizing that our general economy is trending Down. The interest in Stocks and Bonds seemed minimal as compared to safe haven investments. This was noticeable to me and others!  Following is a flavor of the sentiment (both bullish and bearish) from the perspective of various speakers:

  1. Amy Smith, Market Wrap, Her market bias was Bullish. Investors must ignore Washington and the political elections. Find a Super Stock like Facebook and/or possibly Amazon and go with the Institutions who control 90% of the investing. Super Stocks have performed great these past seven years (Apple, Google, Netflix, etc.)!
  2. Frank Holmes, CEO of Global Investors, His market bias was Neutral. Likes gold going forward. His favorite ETF going forward is the symbol – JETS.
  3. Craig Johnson, Piper Jaffray, His market bias was Bullish. Stocks continue to sing a bullish tune. He expects the S&P 500 to be 2350 by year-end. Oil has bottomed. Fear factor overblown. Rates to rise in 2016. Buy!
  4. James Stack, President, Stack Financial, His market bias was mostly Bearish. This is not a low risk market. Volatility increasing. Margin debt at record high. Current market is 6.9 years old (average is 3.1 years). He is 35% in Cash. China could have depressing effect on our markets going forward.
  5. Wayne Allyn Root, the Capitalist Evangelist, His market bias was mostly Bearish. He is an advisor to Donald Trump. Says government fails at everything. Spending out of control. Buy gold and silver! The Obama crash coming!
  6. Steven Hochberg, Chief Market Analyst, Elliott Wave International, His market bias was mostly Bearish. Debt is now at manic proportions. Psychology permeates all markets. Real estate now going down. CoCo bonds reveal the trouble within many municipal markets. Chicago pension funds nearing insolvency. Deflation coming ‘big’ time. Margin debt now turning down (peaked in April 2015). Corporate buybacks coming down. Earnings trending down. Gold to $1400.
  7. Peter Miller, Statistic Director, Barron’s, His market bias was mostly Bearish. Stock and bond markets likely at Top. Earnings recession is here now. Most mutual funds are getting out of equities. Market breath is turning down. Margin Debt trending down. More QE likely coming. Transportation index suggests that Dow index will fall. Sentiment less favorable. Negative interest rates in Japan, Europe, Sweden, Switzerland, and Denmark (suggests deflation).

Best presentation of facts and history IMO was Steven Hochberg of Elliott Wave International!

Some of the other speakers who gave presentations were Mark Skousen (likes gold and Hillary Clinton), Peter Schiff (likes gold and select foreign stocks), Economist George Gilder (suggests that a gold measurement stick is needed for a reference point), Economist Arthur Laffer (lower taxes and sound money needed), Brien Lundin (likes gold and silver mining stocks), Bruce Johnstone (watch out for international black swans), Economist Gary Shilling (deflation is evident everywhere). Basically, the sentiment of the attendees was much more subdued and somber and the presentations on gold history and gold investments were packed this year. The past seven years the sentiment was mostly oriented towards buying stocks and bonds. This year was different!

Best overview of all our economic problems was from the main sponsor of this event (Fidelity Investments). Presenter was Bruce Johnstone!

My personal sense is that the investment community is starting to get educated on our vast economic PROBLEMS (finally). The speakers and the tone at this conference was that our economic system has serious problems with debt, jobs, confidence, the media, the Fed, and sustainability. Our coming elections (and the views of our candidates) point to these problems. Investors now seem to want protection from the coming chaos. The best overall presentation at this conference (from my point of view) was that of Steven Hochberg, Elliott Wave Analyst. Check out this website for current updates: A ‘Wall of Worry’ will now grow daily as investors become AWARE of these facts and this history. Watch for some Black Swan events soon! Ignore the media bias towards positive thinking and the ‘All is O.K.’ mentality! The game is going to change radically in the coming days, weeks, and months. Enjoy! I am:

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May 12th, 2016

Posted In: Kingdom Economics

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