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May 19, 2016 | My Sense: 18,312.39 was the ‘Top’ for the DOW!

Donald B. Swenson: Born January 24, 1943, Roseau, Minnesota. Graduated H.S. 1961, Moorhead High, Minnesota. Graduated College 1968, Moorhead State University, Minnesota. Designated member of Appraisal Institute (MAI), 1974. Employed with Western Life Insurance Company, 1968 – 71; Iowa Securities Company, 1971 – 73; American Appraisal Company, 1974 – 81. Part-time teacher/valuation consultant/bartender, 1979 – 2008 (taught workshops at Waukesha County Technical Institute, Wi. and Madison Area Technical College, Wi.). Retired 2008 (part time teacher/blogger), AZ. Self educated economist/philosopher/theologian: http://kingdomecon.wordpress.com.

On May 19, 2015, the Dow Index reached the lofty number of 18,312.39. Today is one year later and the current Dow Index is 17, 417.12 (as of 11:52 a.m. MST). The drop is minimal but the trend is clearly DOWN from here. Our American economy has also peaked out from the prior stimulus measures of our Central Bank. Real estate is now clearly in a ‘bear’ market. Retail is entering a ‘bear’ market’. Transportation and auto’s are entering a ‘bear’ market. Agriculture is entering a ‘bear’ market. Basically, our entire debt based economy is now starting its descent from the above ‘top’. The process will be manipulated by our Fed and their computers but the general will of the market will prevail and the trend downward will continue.

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Evidence from all sectors of our American economy as well as the global economy clearly suggest that our system is saturated with debt and stagnation. Values are distorted. Prices are manipulated. Our electronic exchanges are rigged via machine trading and algorithmic trading. Basically, the global cyber system of imaginary ‘digits’ and ‘numbers’ are decoupling from the real wealth (our natural resources). This has been evident to me for some time but it now becomes more ‘clear’ every day. Europe, Asia, Africa, South America, Canada, Mexico, and the United States are all stagnating and confidence is waning. The Dow Index should reveal these realities as we move forward.

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The Baltic Dry Index is also starting its descent. It is now at 642 (May 19, 2016) and this suggests more stagnation in exports and imports going forward. The Dow Jones Transportation Index is currently at 7583 whereas it was at 8674 on May 19, 2015. The China Containerized Freight Index is now at 652, some 140 points lower than last year at this time. Yes, the world economy is slowing gradually and relentlessly and this trend is unlikely to change much. Our Central Banks will attempt to change this downward trend but their ‘tools’ are now limited and the markets are changing in their ‘confidence’ of these Central Authorities.

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The ludicrous policy of our FED is to increase interest rates in June, 2016, and this makes ZERO sense given what is happening. If this policy is actually implemented it will further the ‘downward’ trend and speed up the process of descent. My sense is that come June these elite Commanders of our Economy will fold and accept the will of our general market (descent is now the trend going forward). Interest rates will NOT be increased and this will change the current malaise to a type of fear. We now need to prepare for a descent of all stock markets as demand and confidence wane over the rest of 2016. Give this perception some reflection! Enjoy! I am: https://kingdomecon.wordpress.com.

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May 19th, 2016

Posted In: Kingdom Economics

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