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May 19, 2016 | Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 Implications for Stock Market

Nadeem Walayat

Nadeem Walayat is the Editor of The Market Oracle, with over 20 years experience of trading derivates and portfilio management.

At the start of the year the prevailing mood in the oil market was not just one of gloom and doom but of catastrophe as the oil price sunk below $30, skidding by the middle of February to virtually touch $25, a period during which many prominent analysts and investment banks such as Goldman Sachs all of whom were bearish on the prospects for oil prices this year some even suggesting that the oil price could sink to as low as $10 (Standard Chartered) which meant that the oil producers large and small, the frackers and even a string of nations such as Russia, Nigeria and Venezuela were on the fast track towards going bust as their oil profits that financed their state spending budget deficits evaporated.

 

We’ll barely 4 months on and the oil market has gradually transformed from that of imminent $10 apocalypse to one of hopeful recovery as the oil price has clawed it’s way back relentlessly through a series of critical levels of first $30, $35, $40, and most recently popping above $45 to stand at a high for the year of $48! Nearly DOUBLING in THREE MONTHS! And now all those who failed to see this coming are now forecasting higher prices i.e. one of the biggest oil bears of the year, Goldman Sachs now reckons the oil supply glut has evaporated and oil prices are going to reach $51, WOW crude oil has already risen to $48!

These are the SAME fools who have been banging the drums all year for an sub $20 oil price, but now AFTER the oil price has DOUBLED are proclaiming themselves as being bullish! This illustrates an important point! Goldman Sachs and the REST are nothing more than snake oil salesmen! They clearly don’t make money trading as you or I understand it to be, for if they did they would be back to being just as bankrupt as they were during the financial crisis. Instead they make their money by doing dubious deals such as that which bankrupted Greece, by means of hiding their debt!

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016

In terms of my oil price forecast for 2016, my in-depth analysis of Mid January forecast expectations for the crude oil price to bottom by early February at approx $25, the actual bottom came in at $26 and within the time window for a final bear market bottom as the following video analysis and article excerpt illustrate:

17 Jan 2016 – Crude Oil Price Crash Triggering Global Instability, Trend Forecast 2016

Crude Oil Price 2016 Forecast Conclusion

My forecast conclusion is for the crude oil price to trade within three distinct trading ranges for 2016 of $20 to $40, $35 to $50 and $62 to $40. Furthermore the trend pattern imposed onto the trading ranges implies that a bottom is likely by early February 2016 at around $25, followed by a trend higher into Mid year towards $50, a correction into September, followed by a trend towards $62 before succumbing to a correction during December to target an end year price of approx $48 as illustrated by the following forecast graph.

Crude Oil Price Forecast 2016 Implications for Stock Market Trend

My latest video analysis seeks to update what has transpired since, and whether the crude oil price remains on track to to continue trending towards $60 before the end of this year, and what this means for the stock market that I have consistently stated should track the crude oil price rally higher, whilst many if not most have long since convinced themselves that stocks were not only in a bear market but that a crash was always liniment! So found out the prospects for oil and the stock market in my latest video analysis –

Stock Market - Crude Oiil Forecast

 

EU Referendum BrExit – New Dawn?

And lastly, an average of the latest EU referendum opinion polls put the LEAVE and REMAIN camps virtually neck and neck on 44% with 12% of those polled undecided. Which compares against a month ago of 42% LEAVE and 48% REMAIN, 10% undecided. So it is no wonder that the REMAIN camp has gone into full blown panic mode with a relentless torrent of fear mongering emanating from the establishment REMAIN camp. Instead I offer my latest video in this series as a message of HOPE, a message of a New Dawn, New Life for Britain, summed up in one word FREEDOM!

Therefore, with just over 5 weeks to go then NOW is the time for BrExiters to go for broke in a last ditched sustained effort to convince as many voters as possible to vote for FREEDOM on June 23rd, for all sides agree that there won’t be another referendum, therefore this is it, it is now or never!

The Market Oracle’s own 9 month long BrExit campaign is being ramped up as we enter these last few weeks, producing pro-LEAVE resources from in-depth analysis, rebuttal articles, many videos, and active on the social networks so as to do our best towards achieving freedom.

Furthermore you too can now support our campaign for BrExit Freedom, allowing us to further intensify our in-depth analysis and forecasts of the consequences of failing to vote LEAVE, rebuttals of the Remain campaign’s daily propaganda and produce entertaining video’s to help convince the undecided that a vote for Brexit would herald a New Dawn, New Life for Britain.

 

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter (only requirement is an email address) for forthcoming in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecasts that include the following :

  • BrExit to Save Europe from the Apocalypse
  • US Dollar Trend Forecast
  • UK Housing Market Trend Forecasts
  • US Stock Market Forecasts
  • US House Prices Detailed Multi-Year Trend Forecast
  • Gold and Silver Price Forecast

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem’s forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook’s in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

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May 19th, 2016

Posted In: The Market Oracle

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