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April 4, 2016 | Rumors of Trump’s Demise Overblown; Wisconsin May Not Matter if Trump Sweeps New York

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Political pundits are ringing the death bell for Trump if he loses big in Wisconsin.

However, those rumors are remarkably premature ahead of the New York primary.

A sweep in New York (and that looks increasingly likely), will more than cover any losses in Wisconsin.

New York Rules

New York Primary rules are complex but here is the story from Front Loading.

On the one hand, there is a qualifying threshold. If a candidate wins more than 20 percent of the vote, then that candidate becomes eligible for either statewide or congressional district delegates.

On the other, there are winner-take-all thresholds at play in New York as well. If a candidate wins a majority of the vote either statewide or in a congressional district, then all the delegates either statewide (at-large and automatic) or in a district are allocated to the majority winner. That winner-take-all trigger, if tripped, renders the 20% qualifying threshold unnecessary.

Should some candidate win a majority, this process becomes a lot easier. Anyone over 50 percent is allocated all 14 at-large and automatic delegates.

I am still not quite positive what that says, but if Trump wins the state with over 50% and most of the districts with over 50% at a minimum he will win the vast majority of the delegates at a minimum.

This is one I have been following closely, and this is what it looks like courtesy of Nate Silver.

Trump’s Odds

New York Trump4

That statistic does not matter. The real question is whether or not Trump can capture 50% of the vote and where.

Recent Polls

New York Trump

Silver’s Poll’s Only Projection

New York Trump3

Silver’s 538 Projection

New York Trump2

Once again Silver downplays Trump in his projection, but even if that downplay is correct, Trump will sweep most or all of New York’s delegates.

New York has 95 delegates. Wisconsin has 42. If Trump can get all or nearly all of the New York delegates plus a dozen or so Wisconsin delegates he will remain on track for the nomination.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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April 4th, 2016

Posted In: Mish Talk

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