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April 29, 2016 | GDPNow 2nd Quarter Estimate at 1.8%; NY Fed Nowcast 0.8%; Blue Chip 2.3%

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

In the nowcasting business, the ever-optimistic “Blue Chip” forecasters lead the way, expecting GDP will rise by 2.3% in the second quarter.

The initial reading by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model, released today, is 1.8%.

The New York Fed Nowcast is a mere 0.8%.

GDPNow 2016-04-29

New York Fed Nowcast

NY Nowcast 2016-04-29

New York Fed Analysis

  • This week’s advance GDP release was 0.5% (0.54% when taken to two digits) which is close to the latest nowcast of 0.7% (0.72% to two digits) and consistent with the weakness predicted by the model since we started tracking the first-quarter GDP growth in November 2015.
  • GDP growth prospects remain moderate for 2016:Q2, standing at 0.8%.
  • News from the past two weeks’ data releases, since the April 15 nowcast was released, had an overall negative effect on the nowcast for the second quarter.
  • Housing and manufacturing news had the largest negative impact on the nowcasts, while
    manufacturers’ inventories of durable goods provided a small but positive surprise.

Fed going to hike twice into this?
Even once?

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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April 29th, 2016

Posted In: Mish Talk

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