- the source for market opinions


April 27, 2016 | Fed Still Expects Two Hikes, Market Still Says One, Not Until November

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

In today’s FOMC statement, the Fed made some useless noise about closely monitoring inflation.

The Fed also dropped concerns on global economic risks and gave no indication it might waver on last month’s projection it would hike twice this year.

The market expects no more than one hike, and not until November at the earliest.

Fed Tracker Changes

The Wall Street Journal’s Fed Statement Tracker highlights these changes.

Fed Tracker 2016-04-27

Hooray – No Global Risks

There are a few more changes but the only significant change was the Fed dropped this statement: “However, global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks“.

Apparently, there are no global economic or financial risks.

CME Fedwatch June

Fedwatch 2016-04-27A

CME Fedwatch November

Fedwatch 2016-04-27B

The Fed still anticipates two hikes this year. The market says only one.

The first time the odds of a hike increase to over 50% is November, and even then just barely.

Those odds did shift today from 38.9% chance to a 53.5% chance.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

STAY INFORMED! Receive our Weekly Recap of thought provoking articles, podcasts, and radio delivered to your inbox for FREE! Sign up here for the Weekly Recap.

April 27th, 2016

Posted In: Mish Talk

Post a Comment:

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

All Comments are moderated before appearing on the site


This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.