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April 17, 2016 | Trump Will Win Indiana! This is Why

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Earlier today I posted Indiana Awards 57 Delegates Before Primary Vote, Only 1 to Trump; Satan vs. Trump.

MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow stated her belief “Trump will lose, at least, in the only way that really counts. And the reason I can tell you that is 57 actual human-flesh delegates …..” have been assigned to someone other than Trump.

I am pleased that  Maddow is stepping up support for Trump (albeit in a roundabout way). Her real concern obviously is that  the election process is rigged.

Rigged or not, I think Trump will win Indiana, then the nomination.

No Polls

There are no polls in Indiana. We are all guessing. A blog by “Gibbon” appropriately entitled The Battle of Waterloo, Indiana explains why.

Due to a law circumscribing the use of automated phone solicitation, opinion polling in the state is both more difficult, and expensive, than it is in most other parts of the country.”

Indiana Like Wisconsin?

Nate Silver changed his tune on Indiana on the belief that Indiana is more like Wisconsin than Illinois.

So here’s the question of the day: Is Indiana more like New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, or Wisconsin?

That is actually a trick question. I believe, as I have all along, that Indiana is more like Indiana than any of the above states.

When I look at Indiana, I see steel mills and manufacturing that have left the state.

It does not matter why. Rather, what matters is who people blame. And they blame China and Mexico.

I strongly disagree with Trump’s approach on tariffs, but my vote is outweighed by those looking for a scapegoat.

Borders

A quick check of the map shows Indiana shares borders with Ohio, Michigan, and Illinois.

Indiana does not border Wisconsin and in fact has little in common with Wisconsin.

It is likely that Kasich supporters take votes away from Cruz in areas bordering Ohio. Cruz is likely to take votes away from Kasich in the bible belt.

I expect Trump to romp and stomp in areas hard hit by manufacturing losses and come out ahead in most of the rest of the state.

Kasich in this race, if he stays in, will tip Indiana to Trump.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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April 17th, 2016

Posted In: Mish Talk

One Comment

  • Avatar joe says:

    Vox Populi vox Dei (Voice of people is the voice of God). People have spoken, Americans want Mr. Trump to be our next President of USA.

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