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March 6, 2016 | Good Day for Cruz on Semi-Super Saturday?

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Republicans went to the polls in four states today on this Semi-Super Saturday: Maine, Kansas, Kentucky and Louisiana. Democrats voted in Louisiana, Kansas and Nebraska.

Early indications are such that Cruz will win Kansas with ease. Polls are still open in the other states.

But Kansas, Maine, and Kentucky are Caucus states where organization counts more than primary states.

Nate Silver explains in Semi-Super Saturday: Semi-Live Coverage

We now have 12 percent of precincts reporting in Kansas, and it looks like Cruz land. He leads 50 percent to Trump’s 25 percent and Rubio’s 14 percent. Not only that, but Cruz holds a significant lead in all three of the congressional districts currently reporting results. Unless something changes significantly, Cruz is going to win Kansas with ease.

When watching the results from Kansas and Maine, keep in mind that both are closed caucuses. That means you have to be a registered member of the party to participate, while many Trump supporters come from outside the Republican Party. If the early results hold and Trump disappoints in both states, the closed nature of the caucuses could be one reason why. Also, organization matters a lot in caucuses. Cruz is generally regarded as the best organized candidate.

Kansas polls (40 delegates) are closed. Kentucky (46 delegates) closes at 4:00 PM CT, Maine (23 delegates) at 6:00 PM CT, and Louisiana (46 delegates) at 8:00PM CT.

Thresholds for winning delegates are low. All the candidates will pick up delegates. Today’s results won’t mean anything in the grand scheme of things unless Marco Rubio does so poorly that he decides to step aside.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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March 6th, 2016

Posted In: Mish Talk

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