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March 16, 2016 | Four Out of Five Ain’t Bad: Cruz and Kasich Stomped in Delegate Counts

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Four Out of Five Ain’t Bad

The Washington Post has things backwards with this headline “A good night for Trump and a better night for Clinton.”

That’s a bunch of fluff analysis.

Hillary is going to win the Democratic nomination regardless of whether or not she lost a state on the “real” super Tuesday.

Donald Trump needed a big win to avoid a contested election. He has that win.

This was an amazing night for Trump if the latest totals hold. Trump won Florida, North Carolina, Illinois, and Missouri, losing only Ohio.

The delegate totals are even more impressive for Trump.

The “Real” Super Tuesday Results

With 100% of the vote in, Trump is ahead in Missouri. However, the networks still have not announced a winner. Instead NBC labeled Trump the “apparent winner”.

Just as I was about to capture a screenshot showing 100% of the vote in, it now appears only 99.9% of the vote is in. Decision Desk HQ tweeted “STL City has more votes in…after 100%…again.”

The results from Politico look like this.

Missouri Votes

The only way Cruz can win Missouri is if he picks up enough ballots mailed in in the past few days and postmarked on or before March 15. Even if he does “win” Missouri, he will not win most of the Missouri delegates.

At stake are 12 delegates that go to the overall winner.

On Pace to Erase His Ohio Loss

Earlier in the evening David Wasserman at Five-Thirty-Eight commented …

Guess what? Trump could make up for all 66 delegates he lost in Ohio with huge delegate margins in Illinois and Missouri. In Missouri, Trump is clinging to a lead of just 2,400 votes, but IF things continue as they are, Trump will capture 47 of Missouri’s delegates to just five for Cruz. And in Illinois, where Trump is winning about 40 percent of the vote, he could win all but a handful of congressional districts, giving him perhaps 60 of the state’s 69 delegates. Wow.

How does that happen?

Missouri is winner take all by congressional district plus another 12 delegates to the overall winner. Each district gets five delegates and Trump is ahead in 7 of 8. Illinois is similar.

I was not aware of that math when I made my projections earlier.

Cruz has a huge win in one district and trails by lesser amounts in all the other districts. Using Wasserman’s math, results will look like this.

Tueday Scorecard1

Trump would not pick up the 66 he lost in Ohio as Wasserman stated. Rather, he would pick up 39 of them.

But I never presumed Trump needed Ohio in the first place. The campaign trail is very favorable for Trump going forward. A three-way race assuming Kasich stays in makes it even more favorable for Trump.

The Rubio votes will primarily split between Kasich and Cruz, with neither of them likely to gain much traction.

The “Stop Trump” movement is now clinging to hopes of a brokered convention, with decreasing odds of that happening.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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March 16th, 2016

Posted In: Mish Talk

One Comment

  • Avatar Layne says:

    The establishment should hope that Trump wins both the primary and the general. It may be the only thing that pre-empts a civil war or descent into chaos and anarchy. The elites may lose some of their privilege and power, but they might still save their necks.

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