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February 9, 2016 | Gold

Martin Armstrong

Martin Arthur Armstrong is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.

GCNYNF-D 2-8-2016

Everything has moved to their extremes we will discuss tomorrow. In gold, our opening pivot point for today jumped to 1220.73. That meant an opening below that warned we should close lower, which we did slightly. But the low on the first Benchmark took place 51.6 (6 x 8.6) months from the 2011 high and the rally we just saw peaked yesterday was 17.2 days up (2 x 8.6). The lowest closing took place on December 17th at 1049.60, and the high this week unfolded 37 days from that low or 8.6 x 4.3.



The forecast array picked February 8th for a turning point. So far so good.



Caution is clearly necessary. the Daily Bearish is now 1124 so it is still quite away. With two Directional Changes back to back, and this week was the Panic Cycle, we still have to be careful here for further upside remains possible only with a daily closing above the 1208 level, which would need the Euro to rise, dollar to fall, and the share Dow to make new lows. Pressing everything to the extreme get everyone off-side and separates the fools quickly from their money. There is NOTHING to trade on without a reversal matched with time. Selling the high with a stop above 1209 in a quick play, but you also have to be very nimble.

We are not facing a major change in trend in all these markets. This is the push to create that FALSE MOVE before everything goes completely nuts. So keep the power-dry. Time is required  before taking action. In gold, we need to see February close above $1208 to take this serious. But that in isolation would not unfold. Plus, the targets for the rally have been here in mid February with high volatility building thereafter. With the Fed now considering NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES, this is in itself warning that the deflation is expanding.

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February 9th, 2016

Posted In: Armstrong Economics

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